Oz Cyclone Chasers

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WELL HELLO THERE MONSOON!

In some good news for the Top End, the monsoon flow to the north of the continent looks to have become more active today as shown on the IR Satellite Imagery from our weather centre. Darwin had its first decent shower in weeks this afternoon which is a good sign the suppressed garbage you have all endured has finally buggered off! There has also been some good storm and shower activity around Gove and Katherine today while areas in the Barkly District are still forecast ...
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HAPPY DAYS AHEAD FOR TOP END LOW

​It's always difficult to pin the tail on the donkey or in this case pinpoint the low over the Top End. The low has moved slowly west over the last 24hours which was a little earlier than a few models had anticipated. The latest BOM Tropical Cyclone Outlook has it located at 14.3S 130.0E which is just to the east of Port Keats, we have overlayed it on our 500M Visible Sattelite Image out of the OCC Subscriber Weather Centre below.​For the keen radar watches you might be forgiven f...
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TOP END TO COP A DRENCHING

​The NT low is on the move north and can be clearly seen on the OCC weather centres 500m Visible satellite image loop. At this stage the low is just to the south of Katherine but has shown signs of accelerating north. As a consequence of the low moving closer, the monsoonal flow over Darwin and the western Top End finally has a 'trigger' again and the weather should begin to deteriorate quite rapidly this evening and continue for the next few days.​The image below shows how the low is effectivel...
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Monsoon Trough continues to strengthen

Monsoonal conditions continuing to establish themselves across the Top End and the Gulf. It even looks as though a low is trying to get itself organised to the south of Katherine but still early days yet. Models agree on an active Monsoon for the NT Coast but still a little uncertainty with regard to where any lows will initially form. Any lows that do form over the Top End are likely to take an initial NW track with some modelling going for a deepening one in the Joseph Bonaparte...
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The Top End and Darwin week ahead

Well folks the models have firmed significantly in these last few days, because it's nearly Christmas and the word 'cyclone' likes to be thrown around a bit especially around Darwin we thought it would be a good time to give a quick run down of current modelling and what to expect in the Top End, particularly Darwin this coming week. As most of our subscribers would already be aware, we do have a low expected to form either just to the North of NW of the Tiwi Islands and begin to ...
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What's going on in the Top End?

​It's been a frustrating week for Top Enders as they continue to wait for the monsoon trough to form, unfortunately the forecast inland trough last week wasn't strong enough to produce widespread showers and storms. While there have been good falls around many places have missed out. Darwin in particular has endured more above average temps and the 3rd month in a row recording well below average rainfall. Darwin has basically been sitting In the doldrums for nearly a week with no winds upst...
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ENCOURAGING LONGER TERM CLIMATIC INDICATORS FOR THE AUSTRALIAN REGION

Thought we would take the opportunity to have a closer look at some climatic modelling for Australia later in the year and the news is quite encouraging. Firstly there are two very dominant influences on our weather, one is the Indian Ocean to our west and the Pacific to our east. Unfortunately, late in 2015 we faced a double whammy for suppressed conditions in Australia with the onset of a very strong El Nino in the Pacific and making matters worse, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the I...
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