Oz Cyclone Chasers
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The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for a Tropical LOW located well north of Darwin. A TCFA is issued when a significant Tropical Cyclone is expected to develop in the next 24 hours. The Bureau Of Meteorology have remained much more conservative instead adopting a MODERATE (20-50%)chance of Tropical Cyclone development in the next two days. The balance of available computer model evidence, particularly those models that are more reliable are showin...
Hot on the heels of TC Debbie, the tropics remain unstable. Multiple trough systems and atmospheric gravity waves are expected to pass across the far north of Australia over the next fortnight. Along these regions of enhanced instability computer forecast models are predicting from one, to as many as three LOW pressure systems to form. Thankfully these regions of cyclogenesis potential are nowhere near the areas that Debbie has just ravaged. However we need to be mindful that there will be ...
A Tropical LOW has formed this afternoon and will gradually deepen from later tomorrow while moving southwards in the Indian Ocean off Western Australia's coastline. Computer models indicate the system is likely to attain Tropical Cyclone intensity on Wednesday or Thursday while approaching the Pilbara coastline. Below is a preliminary assessment of available model guidance of track/crossing locations and intensities. Please be aware this is preliminary data and until the LOW form...