Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog

Welcome to our OCC Blog! We will be posting frequently on this blog so please check back for new items regularly. You can also subscribe to get notifications of new posts.

Chris was born in Northern Greece and came to Australia as a young boy. He initially lived in Sydney and in 1988 was amazed by a very intense hail storm that smashed his house. This hailstorm had torn off the roof, blown out the windows of his house and left his family in complete shock, all with almost no warning. Since that day, Chris Nitsopoulos (Nitso) has been passionate about studying the weather and learning about what makes thunderstorms tick in order to better understand and forecast them. Upon completing his high school education in Townsville, he went on to James Cook university to begin a degree in Meteorology. Unfortunately Chris could not grasp the intricate mathematical formulas behind the physics involved in meteorology and changed degrees with a year left in his meteorology degree. He completed a degree in Secondary School education majoring in Geography and ironically enough, minoring in mathematics and physics. Nitso successfully taught Geography, Science, Mathematics and Physical Education for 5 years before dropping his full time teaching load to pursue a small business goal which could give him a lot more time off and help fund his storm chasing. In 2010, Nitso began a business selling sports shoes and supplements online. In 2013, Nitso shut down that business and now works primarily on Oz Cyclone Chasers and does a couple of days supply teaching at a couple of Catholic schools in Townsville The fact that his workload was far reduced allowed him to pursue his burning desire to chase tropical cyclones.



Even though Chris never completed his Meteorology degree, his passion for studying the weather and in particular severe weather systems has never diminished. During the dry season you would normally see Chris spending much of his spare time burying his head in old meteorology books or online researching meteorological studies from around the world. Chris enjoys and learns from every storm chase regardless of its success/failure, in fact Chris believes that in storm chasing you learn more from a failed chase or a failed forecast because it drives you to learn why you got it wrong and to strive to get it right next time. Chris is a registered storm spotter with the Bureau of Meteorology, he is a trained first aid officer and a qualified gym instructor. Chris also enjoys refereeing Rugby League and Rugby Union part time in the Winter months and says that he would go crazy with boredom and weigh 200kg if he didn’t have a hobby like refereeing to keep him fit and busy in the months between April and October. 



Chris is in charge of all of our subscriber services at OCC. 


CYCLONE THREAT GROWS NEXT WEEK BUT WHERE EXACTLY?

CYCLONE THREAT GROWS NEXT WEEK BUT WHERE EXACTLY?
​As we get closer to the onset of the Australian monsoon, models continue to develop a monsoonal LOW and then many of them intensify it into a Tropical Cyclone. However the big questions is where? and the equally big question, given that its Christmas time is WHEN?  So here is what we can speculate/infer/forecast/(add your own guess type word in here) based on current weather computer models.  ​ECMWF MODEL ENSEMBLE SUITE - #1 IN THE WEATHER FORECAST WORLD Become a subscriber and we'll ...
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IS THE MONSOON PREPARING TO DELIVER A CHRISTMAS PACKAGE?

So have you been naughty or nice?  Sorry to be the Grinch, but chances are the Weather Gods won't care. Over the weekend the monsoon trough will drift south and then become more active next week. Along the monsoon trough we will quite likely see 3 - 4 LOW pressure systems in the Australian Area Of Responsibility. ​Near Cocos Island  South of Indonesia In the Timor Sea Near the Solomons Numbers 2 and 3 are likely to deepen and one of those two could bring an unwanted wind...
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OCC STATE WEATHER FORECAST VIDEOS - 13TH DECEMBER 2016

OCC STATE WEATHER FORECAST VIDEOS - 13TH DECEMBER 2016
​Good morning everyone, We have record breaking rain in WA, monsoons, LOWS heavy showers and storms all to talk about today across the three northern states and Territories in your subscriber state weather updates.  To become an OCC subscriber and gain access to all the graphics shown on these videos and the daily videos themselves, head to www.ozcyclonechasers.com.au/subscribe Subscribers don't forget we go into some deep detail about the future Western Australian cyclone and what we can e...
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CYCLONE THREAT TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK

Earlier this afternoon, the Bureau Of Meteorology in Perth issued its daily update on Western Australian Tropical Cyclone development stating that with the monsoon trough expected to drift southwards, "the risk increases next weekend for a tropical system to develop south of the Indonesian Archipelago."  Did you know that our subscribers have known about this LOW pressure signal now for over two weeks? Become an OCC subscriber and gain access to reliable longer term cyclone outloo...
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MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO COME IN QUEENSLAND

After a great day of showers and storms across the Central and Northern parts of Queensland today, more are expected over the next few days as we can see on the map above. Widespread regions of Eastern Queensland are expected to see over 10mm of rain this week with isolated areas receiving over 100mm for the week. Today we witnessed many falls around 5-10mm with isolated falls over 50mm in some convective cells in Central Queensland. Become an OCC member and find out whe...
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THE WEEK AHEAD - PRE-MONSOONAL PHASE

Next week will be characterised by a pre-monsoonal weather pattern across Northern Australia. That means deep tropical maritime easterly winds will push scattered showers into tropical Queensland, while thunderstorm activity will become more active across the Northern parts of NT and the Peninsula of Queensland.  A monsoon trough will begin drifting southwards next weekend through the Banda and Java Seas and looks likely to spawn a weak LOW near the Top End coastline around Friday (16)...
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WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN QUEENSLAND

The combination of a deep moist easterly stream, a surface trough and upper trough are expected to create strong and widespread showers and thunderstorms across Queensland's Eastern half. rainfall totals above for the next 7 days suggest many parts of the state should receive more than 25mm (dark greens)with isolated parts in Central Queensland expecting over 100mm (yellows). There is likely to be severe potential with storms on Friday  particularly in areas that get some heating ...
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BOM UPGRADE CYCLONE POTENTIAL FOR WA LOW

​Today's Cyclone outlook update from the Bureau of Meteorology in Western Australia has upgraded the potential for a Tropical LOW south of Bali to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone to Moderate by Thursday. That means it has a 2-5 chance out of 10 to become a Tropical Cyclone while it has a 5-8 chance out of 10 to remain a Tropical LOW.  Whether it becomes a Tropical Cyclone or remains a Tropical LOW, it is unlikely to directly impact the Western Australian coastline.  There are si...
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TROPICAL LOW FORMS NEAR BALI AND MOVES INTO WA WATERS

Late yesterday a tropical LOW formed just to the south of Bali and has drifted southwards this morning to lie in Northern Western Australian waters. The LOW currently is situated in a favourable environment for further development but it is a very oval shaped (elongated) circulation therefore rapid deepening is not expected despite the reasonably favourable environmental conditions surrounding it.  The system is expected to drift either south or south-west and may deepen slightly over ...
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TROPICAL LOW TO FORM ON MONDAY

A Tropical LOW is set to form on Sunday night or Monday near Java and track in a southerly direction into Western Australian waters during the week. The LOW will develop a little through the week and has been given a LOW (5-20%) probability of intensifying into a Tropical Cyclone by mid week. At this stage the LOW is not expected to hit the Western Australian coast even if it does form into a Tropical Cyclone, but it will set a chain reaction of events that should drag the monsoon trough southwa...
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CORAL SEA CYCLONE POTENTIAL UPGRADED

The Bureau Of Meteorology has just upgraded the potential of the LOW South-West of the Solomons to develop into a Tropical Cyclone to between 20-50%, up from less than 5% yesterday. Basically that means given a similar type LOW in a similar environment we would expect a tropical cyclone to form between 2 and 5 times out of 10 whereas we would expect a Tropical Cyclone not to form between 5 - 8 times out of 10.  Yet again we need to stress that whether or not the LOW becomes Australia's firs...
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CORAL SEA LOW FORMS WITH A BANG OVERNIGHT

CORAL SEA LOW FORMS WITH A BANG OVERNIGHT
​Overnight convection has exploded near the location of a developing Tropical LOW South-West of the Solomon Islands. The LOW which was expected to form on Friday night took its time to get started, but strong convergence formed along a trough line in the Solomons region yesterday and a small circulation formed south-west of the island nation overnight. Check out the 12 hour loop to see how the convective explosion took place. The system is likely to deepen a little over the next few days as...
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STATE WEATHER UPDATES - 25 NOVEMBER 2016

STATE WEATHER UPDATES - 25 NOVEMBER 2016
THIS IS SUBSCRIBER CONTENT BUT HAS BEEN RELEASED TO THE PUBLIC AS PART OF OUR 'EVERY 2 WEEK PUBLIC RELEASE INITIATIVE'  Morning folks, just, today's updates are a little late. I got a little carried away with a couple of monthly forecasts. Looks like a very interesting back half of December (contrary to that very bad news the BoM gave us on their imagery yesterday) more on that in the FUTURE AUSSIE CYCLONE update on the FUTURE AUSSIE CYCLONE PAGE  Today we have CQ storms and SE Gu...
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SECOND CORAL SEA LOW OF 2016/17 FORMS THIS WEEKEND

​A new LOW is set to form in the Coral Sea on Friday night. The LOW is yet again expected to remain well offshore from the Queensland coast. The LOW is not expected to form into a Tropical Cyclone, but may deepen slightly over the weekend as it heads south. So once again please don't go stressing out about it if you hear it mentioned on mainstream media. Below we have four of the world's best computer forecast models and their track and intensity forecasts for this upcoming Coral Sea LOW up...
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DARWIN NAILED WITH ALMOST 100MM

Wow what a night for Darwinians, many city suburbs were smashed with close to 100mm overnight and this morning from a strong line of overnight showers and storms.  Falls to 9AM this morning across the city included: ​Leanyer - 98mm The Hospital - 95mm Airport - 82mm Gunn Point - 97mm The Chase - 47mm It's been a cracking few days of rain and storms across the region with some moderate to heavy falls reported on Sunday from stuff that happened overnight Saturday.  There's plenty more to...
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CORAL SEA LOW BEGINS MOVING SOUTH-WEST

​A weak LOW and associated trough has begun moving south-west across the Coral Sea, but before you go and buy all the bread and milk that Coles, Woolies and IGA have in stock across SE Queensland, make sure you read the rest of this article.  The LOW is a part of a complex trough system and in itself is actually quite a weak feature. However the trough that the LOW is attached to has been creating heaps of heavy rain and strong winds to the LOW's south and East for a number of days now. You...
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS HAVE LIGHTNING

Earlier this morning Oz Cyclone Chasers released Australia-wide lightning overlays to our subscribers as part of our Oz Cyclone Chasers membership package. Oz Cyclone Chasers have partnered with MetraWeather - the National Official Meteorological Agency of New Zealand, to bring you accurate and near real-time lightning imagery across Australia and the oceans surrounding Australia. Lightning data is provided with military grade precision that records the strike within a metre of where the bolt hi...
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CORAL SEA LOW OVER THE WEEKEND

​The Bureau Of Meteorology today have mentioned that the Northern Coral Sea is expected to become more active this weekend with a Tropical LOW possibly forming in the north between PNG and the Solomon Islands. Initial indications are that environmental conditions will be unfavourable for intensification of this system and unfavourable for a Queensland track. The system is much more likely to track to the south or south-east.   Want to find out where it's going, why it's ...
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MID LATITUDE CYCLONE BARRELS INTO W.A

An extra tropical cyclone/mid latitude cyclone is barelling into WA's Central Western coastline. The system is about to make landfall near Geraldton at time of writing (4PM QLD time). Unlike a Tropical Cyclone, a mid latitude cyclone harbours most of its worst weather away from the centre of the system. That is indeed the case with this system as well.  Looking at Western Australian radar and satellite below from the OCC Weather Centre shows us that most of the actual rain falling from...
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WEAK TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH TO FORM IN THE CORAL SEA

Late this week a weak Tropical LOW is expected to form in the far Northern Coral Sea or the Solomon Sea. The weak circulation is expected to move in a south to south-east direction. The system may deepen slightly over the weekend or early next week. At this early stage it is unlikely to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone and most likely to remain a weak LOW or wash out into a surface trough.  To gain access to in-depth daily video forecast updates on this and every other ...
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