Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog

Welcome to our OCC Blog! We will be posting frequently on this blog so please check back for new items regularly. You can also subscribe to get notifications of new posts.

THE WEEK AHEAD - PRE-MONSOONAL PHASE

Next week will be characterised by a pre-monsoonal weather pattern across Northern Australia. That means deep tropical maritime easterly winds will push scattered showers into tropical Queensland, while thunderstorm activity will become more active across the Northern parts of NT and the Peninsula of Queensland.  A monsoon trough will begin drifting southwards next weekend through the Banda and Java Seas and looks likely to spawn a weak LOW near the Top End coastline around Friday (16)...
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WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN QUEENSLAND

The combination of a deep moist easterly stream, a surface trough and upper trough are expected to create strong and widespread showers and thunderstorms across Queensland's Eastern half. rainfall totals above for the next 7 days suggest many parts of the state should receive more than 25mm (dark greens)with isolated parts in Central Queensland expecting over 100mm (yellows). There is likely to be severe potential with storms on Friday  particularly in areas that get some heating ...
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BOM UPGRADE CYCLONE POTENTIAL FOR WA LOW

​Today's Cyclone outlook update from the Bureau of Meteorology in Western Australia has upgraded the potential for a Tropical LOW south of Bali to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone to Moderate by Thursday. That means it has a 2-5 chance out of 10 to become a Tropical Cyclone while it has a 5-8 chance out of 10 to remain a Tropical LOW.  Whether it becomes a Tropical Cyclone or remains a Tropical LOW, it is unlikely to directly impact the Western Australian coastline.  There are si...
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TROPICAL LOW FORMS NEAR BALI AND MOVES INTO WA WATERS

Late yesterday a tropical LOW formed just to the south of Bali and has drifted southwards this morning to lie in Northern Western Australian waters. The LOW currently is situated in a favourable environment for further development but it is a very oval shaped (elongated) circulation therefore rapid deepening is not expected despite the reasonably favourable environmental conditions surrounding it.  The system is expected to drift either south or south-west and may deepen slightly over ...
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TROPICAL LOW TO FORM ON MONDAY

A Tropical LOW is set to form on Sunday night or Monday near Java and track in a southerly direction into Western Australian waters during the week. The LOW will develop a little through the week and has been given a LOW (5-20%) probability of intensifying into a Tropical Cyclone by mid week. At this stage the LOW is not expected to hit the Western Australian coast even if it does form into a Tropical Cyclone, but it will set a chain reaction of events that should drag the monsoon trough southwa...
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CORAL SEA CYCLONE POTENTIAL UPGRADED

The Bureau Of Meteorology has just upgraded the potential of the LOW South-West of the Solomons to develop into a Tropical Cyclone to between 20-50%, up from less than 5% yesterday. Basically that means given a similar type LOW in a similar environment we would expect a tropical cyclone to form between 2 and 5 times out of 10 whereas we would expect a Tropical Cyclone not to form between 5 - 8 times out of 10.  Yet again we need to stress that whether or not the LOW becomes Australia's firs...
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CORAL SEA LOW FORMS WITH A BANG OVERNIGHT

CORAL SEA LOW FORMS WITH A BANG OVERNIGHT
​Overnight convection has exploded near the location of a developing Tropical LOW South-West of the Solomon Islands. The LOW which was expected to form on Friday night took its time to get started, but strong convergence formed along a trough line in the Solomons region yesterday and a small circulation formed south-west of the island nation overnight. Check out the 12 hour loop to see how the convective explosion took place. The system is likely to deepen a little over the next few days as...
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STATE WEATHER UPDATES - 25 NOVEMBER 2016

STATE WEATHER UPDATES - 25 NOVEMBER 2016
THIS IS SUBSCRIBER CONTENT BUT HAS BEEN RELEASED TO THE PUBLIC AS PART OF OUR 'EVERY 2 WEEK PUBLIC RELEASE INITIATIVE'  Morning folks, just, today's updates are a little late. I got a little carried away with a couple of monthly forecasts. Looks like a very interesting back half of December (contrary to that very bad news the BoM gave us on their imagery yesterday) more on that in the FUTURE AUSSIE CYCLONE update on the FUTURE AUSSIE CYCLONE PAGE  Today we have CQ storms and SE Gu...
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SECOND CORAL SEA LOW OF 2016/17 FORMS THIS WEEKEND

​A new LOW is set to form in the Coral Sea on Friday night. The LOW is yet again expected to remain well offshore from the Queensland coast. The LOW is not expected to form into a Tropical Cyclone, but may deepen slightly over the weekend as it heads south. So once again please don't go stressing out about it if you hear it mentioned on mainstream media. Below we have four of the world's best computer forecast models and their track and intensity forecasts for this upcoming Coral Sea LOW up...
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DARWIN NAILED WITH ALMOST 100MM

Wow what a night for Darwinians, many city suburbs were smashed with close to 100mm overnight and this morning from a strong line of overnight showers and storms.  Falls to 9AM this morning across the city included: ​Leanyer - 98mm The Hospital - 95mm Airport - 82mm Gunn Point - 97mm The Chase - 47mm It's been a cracking few days of rain and storms across the region with some moderate to heavy falls reported on Sunday from stuff that happened overnight Saturday.  There's plenty more to...
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CORAL SEA LOW BEGINS MOVING SOUTH-WEST

​A weak LOW and associated trough has begun moving south-west across the Coral Sea, but before you go and buy all the bread and milk that Coles, Woolies and IGA have in stock across SE Queensland, make sure you read the rest of this article.  The LOW is a part of a complex trough system and in itself is actually quite a weak feature. However the trough that the LOW is attached to has been creating heaps of heavy rain and strong winds to the LOW's south and East for a number of days now. You...
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COMPUTER MODELS PICKING UP COLD CORED LOW IN THE CORAL SEA THIS WEEK - TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVOURABLE CONDITIONS

​As previously discussed over the past few days, the potential is there for some small LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS to form in the Coral Sea over the next few days.  Tropical Cyclones require a favourable environment for the system to become VERTICALLY STACKED to intensify, along with the obvious Sea Surface Temp threshold and other limiting factor ie. Land interaction.  The UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT is completely unfavourable for any TROPICAL intensification of any LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS next wee...
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS HAVE LIGHTNING

Earlier this morning Oz Cyclone Chasers released Australia-wide lightning overlays to our subscribers as part of our Oz Cyclone Chasers membership package. Oz Cyclone Chasers have partnered with MetraWeather - the National Official Meteorological Agency of New Zealand, to bring you accurate and near real-time lightning imagery across Australia and the oceans surrounding Australia. Lightning data is provided with military grade precision that records the strike within a metre of where the bolt hi...
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CORAL SEA LOW OVER THE WEEKEND

​The Bureau Of Meteorology today have mentioned that the Northern Coral Sea is expected to become more active this weekend with a Tropical LOW possibly forming in the north between PNG and the Solomon Islands. Initial indications are that environmental conditions will be unfavourable for intensification of this system and unfavourable for a Queensland track. The system is much more likely to track to the south or south-east.   Want to find out where it's going, why it's ...
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MID LATITUDE CYCLONE BARRELS INTO W.A

An extra tropical cyclone/mid latitude cyclone is barelling into WA's Central Western coastline. The system is about to make landfall near Geraldton at time of writing (4PM QLD time). Unlike a Tropical Cyclone, a mid latitude cyclone harbours most of its worst weather away from the centre of the system. That is indeed the case with this system as well.  Looking at Western Australian radar and satellite below from the OCC Weather Centre shows us that most of the actual rain falling from...
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A beautiful end to the humidity for a few days

After days of relentless heat and humidity, a line of storms swept through a lot of Eastern Qld on Sunday.  Heat and humidity gave way to cooler drier conditions and during the late afternoon Mackay residents were treated to a spectacular sunset.  Clear conditions will persist today before showers start to return with the SE trade winds from Thursday onwards. Become an Oz Cyclone Chasers subscriber to access all of our forecast model charts, radar, satellite and daily forecast videos f...
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WEAK TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH TO FORM IN THE CORAL SEA

Late this week a weak Tropical LOW is expected to form in the far Northern Coral Sea or the Solomon Sea. The weak circulation is expected to move in a south to south-east direction. The system may deepen slightly over the weekend or early next week. At this early stage it is unlikely to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone and most likely to remain a weak LOW or wash out into a surface trough.  To gain access to in-depth daily video forecast updates on this and every other ...
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THUNDERSTORMS FIRE ON THE ATHERTON TABLELANDS

​Afternoon thunderstorms have fired during this afternoon, which have dropped light falls in quite a number of places. with some weakening thunderstorms  also trying their best to reach the North Tropical Coast Coastline.  Favourable thunderstorm steering has allowed thunderstorms to move at around 40kmhr, which is good enough to get them to the coast in November.  However...Thunderstorms during the buildup are very hit and miss, and unfortunately, good rain is too far in between....
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STORM OUTBREAK MOVES NORTH TOMORROW

After wild storms across most Eastern parts of Queensland the past couple of days, the Top End of the Territory and the Far North of Queensland are likely to benefit from the storm activity brought on by this amazing trough system tomorrow. The trough will clear the Central and Southern Queensland coast overnight tonight but linger through the Far northern Queensland region from approximately Cairns northwards. In the Territory, the trough will push rapidly north of Katherine and kick ...
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THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN QUEENSLAND TODAY/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE

​Good morning folks. Well yesterday was a very very very busy day across most of Queensland, with multiple SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS issued across the state. <<<<<We are targeting the Charters Towers region and possibly will be LIVE STREAMING as the afternoon progresses if reception permit>>>>>>>>> A brilliant line of thunderstorms moved into QLD from NSW in the early afternoon yesterday and pushed nearly to the Capricorn Region, bringing heavy rainfa...
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