Oz Cyclone Chasers
TOP END TO COP A DRENCHING
The NT low is on the move north and can be clearly seen on the OCC weather centres 500m Visible satellite image loop. At this stage the low is just to the south of Katherine but has shown signs of accelerating north. As a consequence of the low moving closer, the monsoonal flow over Darwin and the western Top End finally has a 'trigger' again and the weather should begin to deteriorate quite rapidly this evening and continue for the next few days.
The image below shows how the low is effectively squeezing the monsoonal flow to the NW in the mid levels of the atmosphere resulting in very squally SW winds across the west and NW coasts. Any showers or storms pushing up the western flank of the low will bring these winds down to the surface and we would not be surprised if the Darwin BOM issues a severe weather warning for squalls later for the Daly Region.
In the meantime, the inactive monsoonal westerlies Darwin has had for a few days will become very active with squalls coming in from the SW. The low is likely to continue heading north and will more than likely adopt more of a NW track tomorrow before a SW or SSW movement which could potentially see it develop further over the Joseph Bonaparte gulf from Tuesday. Rainfall wise, it is heavily dependant on the exact movement of low but there will be some big totals around the Katherine and Daly Regions over the next couple of days. A Flood Watch for the Bonaparte and North West Coastal Rivers remains current with falls up to 120mm possible and flooding in the Daly, Victoria and Adelaide Rivers a possibility. Current radar imagery shows the Adelaide River and Daly regions copping most of it but for people closer to Darwin you will need to wait a few more hours.
TC Carlos comes to mind when we look at systems like this but the reality is every low is dynamically different and the focus of rainfall and wind not the same. It will be interesting to see how long the low hands around the Top End, while rain is needed in the catchments it's always a fine balance in situations like these.
Anyway, we hope our NT folk enjoy the cooler wetter weather and have a great New Year. Become an OCC subscriber and access our important video forecasts on these systems and what effects they could have on the QLD, NT and WA coastlines. You also get access to high resolution satellite, radar, lightning and computer forecast model imagery. www.ozcyclonechasers.com.au/subscribe