Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog
WILL ALFRED GIVE WA A GOOD BLOW?
After a disappointingly weak and short effort from Yvette, Alfred is the next cab off the Aussie cyclone ranks. But does WA have a chance of getting a decent blow from Alfred over the next week?
The short answer is yes there is a chance that Alfred can develop during the week and yes there is a chance he can hit the WA coast. But is it a decent chance? The jury is out on that one. Read on if you're keen to find out more.
A Tropical LOW is currently over land in the NT near Katherine. The LOW will drift northwards over the next day or two and then shift to the west. Computer models are in good general agreement of the track forecast. But where they disagree on is whether the LOW will get offshore off the WA coastline to develop and provide a decent blow or whether it will remain inland of the coastline and just dump its precipitation load inland.
Let's take a look at the current model projections for this system from the UKMET, GFS and Euro models below
You can see that it's a tough call right now about whether or not this LOW will track offshore, but if it does, conditions will be pretty ripe for its development. In the meantime we'll also be keeping a keen eye to see if tracks over water in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf (between the NT and WA), because conditions won't be too bad up there for its development as well.
Regardless of whether it decides to become cyclone number 2 this year, one thing is quite probable and that is the Kimberley region and the western region of the NT are likely to see some significant rainfalls through the week.
The Bureau Of Meteorology have upgraded the chances for cyclone formation in the WA region to LOW (up to 20%) for Wednesday and do mention that these chances may increase later in the week if the system gets itself off the coast.