Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog
HAPPY DAYS AHEAD FOR TOP END LOW
It's always difficult to pin the tail on the donkey or in this case pinpoint the low over the Top End. The low has moved slowly west over the last 24hours which was a little earlier than a few models had anticipated. The latest BOM Tropical Cyclone Outlook has it located at 14.3S 130.0E which is just to the east of Port Keats, we have overlayed it on our 500M Visible Sattelite Image out of the OCC Subscriber Weather Centre below.
For the keen radar watches you might be forgiven for thinking the low is already offshore just to the west of Port Keats. What you have more than likely been looking at though is the mid level circulation (small pink dot) while the lower level circulation (LLCC) remains overland to its east (large pink dot) Over the next 24 hours as the LLCC crosses the coast the mid levels should begin to align and the low tighten up a bit.
What this means for the Western and NW Top End is the stronger Monsoonal NW winds will be flung back onto the coast from roughly mid tomorrow morning, favoured by the BOM ACCESS-R Model shown below. As you can see, a very broad and squally surge of these winds will impact most coastal areas in the region including Darwin. Expect squally showers and storms to start making their presence known again from early tomorrow morning and becoming more noticeable as the day goes on. While that happens expect the low to deepen further, but the BOM has only given it a low chance of forming into a TC, it's still worth keeping a close eye on though, especially if you live in the North Kimberley.
After the last 24 hours or so of calmer wet conditions expect things to briefly ramp up before the low tracks into the Kimberley with some pretty good odds now for a TC to impact the Pilbara Region late in the week 'if it tracks over water, early weekend!
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