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TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

The GFS model here shows 2 LOW pressure system areas on Tuesday. One of these is likely to become the stronger LOW, but which one isn't clear yet.

The monsoon is ready to fire up again with a Tropical LOW likely to form along it early next week. If this LOW can get itself over water then it has reasonable potential to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone. The LOW is likely to form near the Top End coast of the Northern Territory, but as the image shows above there are two possible formation locations on Monday or Tuesday and it is unclear which of these formation locations will become the dominant region for cyclogenesis. The LOW is initially expected to be slow moving before accelerating towards the West-South-West mid to late next week. The LOW is eventually likely to pop off the Kimberley coastline and models show that the system could intensify as it tracks roughly parallel to the Pilbara coastline. It is unclear whether the LOW or Tropical Cyclone will then make landfall across the Pilbara next weekend or continue tracking west.  

In the meantime, the monsoon is likely to reform and will begin dumping some heavy falls on the Top End coastline from early next week. This heavy rain will be further enhanced by the development of the LOW near the NT coastline. That heavy rain will contract towards the Kimberley later in the week as the LOW or Cyclone tracks south-west. 

No matter which of the two formation regions this LOW develops in, it is extremely unlikely to move into Queensland. 

The Euro model showing a TC off the Pilbara coastline next weekend and moving parallel to the coast.

Subscribers, make sure you check out your Future Aussie Cyclones page for tomorrow afternoon's video on this LOW and then daily forecast videos on this LOW from Sunday onwards. To become a subscriber head to www.ozcyclonechasers.com.au/subscribe

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