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MONSOON TO FIRE UP WITH MULTIPLE LOWS POSSIBLE

Ensemble computer modeling from the ECMWF showing positions of first LOW (black circle) second LOW (green circle), third LOW (Blue circle) and possible fourth LOW shown by less reliable models (yellow circle) NEXT FRIDAY

Well by now we should all know that the monsoon is firing up and will create a LOW for Western Australia, but did you know latest computer model outputs from multiple weather models show the Gulf Of Carpentaria joining in on the action with a LOW/cyclone of their own? A couple of models even show a LOW in the Coral Sea off Queensland's North-East coast. 

The primary action of course is already showing signs of forming soon near Timor. That first LOW will remain weak and will move southwards over the next few days. Once it gets off the Pilbara coastline we expect that LOW to intensify/deepen but structurally computer models in general do not allow the system to tighten sufficiently to become a Tropical Cyclone (plenty of time for this to change as it moves southwards). The LOW is expected to be located somewhere inside the black circle by next Friday, however some outlying models even hit the Pilbara coast with it directly and so we will be monitoring it for that.

Secondary action occurs over the NT and/or the Gulf Of Carpentaria (green circle) where a second LOW is expected to gather strength. This LOW if located over water will find itself in a favourable area for development later next week. The most likely track is to the South-West or west-south-west.

Recently a third area of interest has begun to surface in the Eastern Coral Sea with models split on motion to the South-East or to the west. I think even more interestingly some of the less reliable models are toying with a south-south-westward moving LOW/cyclone off the Cape York Peninsula bringing the system into the North-East Queensland coast in about 10 days. 

So many chances coming up along a very active monsoon trough. The next 2 weeks will surely be intriguing for the West, north and maybe even eastern sections of the continent. Will we break this terrible cyclonic drought? Time will tell, but for now all eyes are on WA's LOW, the first of the series as it begins forming tomorrow and Saturday.

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