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CYCLONE OR NOT IT DOESN'T MATTER - PILBARA COAST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE LOW END CYCLONIC CONDITIONS

A Tropical LOW is developing near the Kimberley coastline. The LOW will move offshore tomorrow and develop further. On Wednesday the LOW will move south and lie near or on the Pilbara coast. Gales with damaging wind gusts will develop along the Pilbara coast and widespread rain will also accompany these strong winds. Let's take a look at what computer models have to say. 

The Euro model has a borderline Category One system making landfall on Wednesday evening near Roebourne with winds gusting to around 100km/hr on exposed parts of the coastline east of the circulation while winds to the west could be gusting as high as 70-80km/hr. 

In the GFS model we see a monsoonal LOW making landfall a touch further east than the Euro and a slightly delayed crossing time overnight Wednesday. The system likely to be creating gusty winds particularly to its east of around 80 - 100km/hr

The ACCESS R model is the odd one out and has a much weaker system making landfall much earlier on Wednesday around the De Gray River mouth as a monsoonal LOW with winds sustained at around 20-30 knots and gusts around 30-40 knots. 

​So overall we have reasonable model agreement and we also have good model agreement that there will be heavy rain right across the Pilbara over the next 7 days. Some coastal falls are likely to exceed 100mm with some isolated pockets getting near 200mm. The interesting thing for areas further south of the Pilbara, is that this system is likely to bring very heavy rain to southern Western Australia too. 

Another LOW is likely to follow this one in the longer term. 

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