Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog

Welcome to our OCC Blog! We will be posting frequently on this blog so please check back for new items regularly. You can also subscribe to get notifications of new posts.
Font size: +

TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY THIS WEEK

A Tropical LOW has formed this afternoon and will gradually deepen from later tomorrow while moving southwards in the Indian Ocean off Western Australia's coastline. Computer models indicate the system is likely to attain Tropical Cyclone intensity on Wednesday or Thursday while approaching the Pilbara coastline. Below is a preliminary assessment of available model guidance of track/crossing locations and intensities. Please be aware this is preliminary data and until the LOW forms and begins to intensify, these estimates may still be quite erroneous. 

THE ECMWF COMPUTER MODEL

​The ECMWF computer model indicates a LOW has already formed. While it is weak it will push in a westerly direction. Oncer the LOW begins to strengthen it will move southward and intensify further. The Cyclone will make landfall on the Pilbara coastline on Thursday night at 8PM WA time as a Category 2 system. WARNING THIS IS PRELIMINARY DATA

UKMET MODEL

​this model indicates that the LOW will form tomorrow and begin intensifying on Tuesday where it will slow down and then begin moving southwards. The LOW becomes a Tropical Cyclone on Wednesday and hits the Pilbara coastline around Karratha on Thursday evening as a higher end category 2 sytstem. WARNING THIS IS PRELIMINARY DATA

​THE ACCESS (BOM) MODEL 

​The Bureau's ACCESS model has  considerably slower moving system and therefore the system comes under the influence of a different steering mechanism. The end result is that the BoM model does not cross the coast with the Tropical Cyclone but it does pass close by with the closest point of approach as a Category 2 system with winds around 30-40 knots being experienced in coastal western parts of the Pilbara overnight Friday into Saturday morning. .  WARNING THIS IS PRELIMINARY DATA

THE GFS MODEL

The GFS model forms the LOW tomorrow and the LOW remains much weaker than in other guidance estimates - consequently the LOW will move in a more westerly trajectory and remains well off the Western Australian coastline . WARNING THIS IS PRELIMINARY DATA

THE CMC MODEL

​The CMC computer model delays the system's development and keeps the system very slow moving. Thus by the end of the model forecast here the cyclone is an intensifying Category 2 or 3 system and still remains well off the Western Australian coastline. WARNING THIS IS PRELIMINARY DATA

SUBSCRIBERS - STATE WEATHER VIDEO UPDATES - 20 MAR...
OCC - STATE WEATHER FORECAST VIDEOS - 19TH MARCH 2...