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QUEENSLAND CYCLONE - MARCH 24 - PM UPDATE

​We answer some burning questions about the Future Queensland Cyclone tonight. and check out the models. Please see below for details

​WHAT HAS HAPPENED TODAY WITH THE LOW? ​The LOW has gradually moved in a SSE direction through the day quite slowly. The LOW has also gradually strengthened through the day.
​WHEN WILL IT BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE?​Models are adamant tomorrow will be the day the system will reach Tropical Cyclone status
​WHERE IS IT GOING TO GO?​During tomorrow (probably later in the day or tomorrow night) the system will slow down its southerly movement and become almost stationary. After a few hours of the system becoming near stationary it will begin moving to the west or south-west. It should continue this motion all through until landfall. 
​HOW STRONG COULD IT GET?​Nothing much has changed regarding intensity however the system is now expected to hit the coast later on Monday or even on Tuesday so there is an opportunity for it to intensify to Category 4. Remember the longer time it spends over the water, the stronger it will get.
We expect a Category 3 or Category 4 impact
WHY HAS THE BOM TRACK MOVED SOUTH?​The system today adopted a slightly more SSE motion compared to what models said would more likely be a slower and SSW motion. That has meant the system is now located about 100 or so kilometres further south-east of where models were expecting it to be yesterday. that has changed both the model forecasts and therefore the BoM forecasts and pushed everything further south. 

We expect a coastal crossing between Tully and Bowen

​SO WHEN IS IT NOW LIKELY TO HIT THE COAST?​Because of what happened above, this time frame has changed
We now expected to hit the coast late Monday - late Tuesday 
​COULD IT MISS THE COAST?​Very unlikely we have a very solid blocking weather system in play south of it that will put the skids on shortly to that SE movement. that blocking ridge will then yank the system back towards the Queensland coast. 
​COULD IT MOVE FURTHER SOUTH OR NORTH?​Yes but that is very heavily dependent on how much further south it goes over the next 24 hours before it puts the skids on. If it stalls early tomorrow then a track towards the Cardwell Tully coastline is more likely, if it doesn't put the skids on until overnight tomorrow night, then a coastal crossing closer to the Bowen Whitsundays becomes more likely. if it does what is expected of it a crossing near Townsville is likely.
​WHEN WILL YOU ISSUE A VIDEO TO THE PEOPLE WHO DON'T SUBSCRIBE?We expect to begin issuing a daily video to non-subscribers from tomorrow evening. However if you do subscribe to us you will get between 2 and 5 updates a day on this thing so we do encourage you to join us and help support our work/documentary efforts.

THE MODELS

​MODEL 
(in order of verified WMO accuracy - most accurate at the top to least accurate at the bottom)

TIME OF CROSS LOCATION OF CROSSINTENSITY OF CROSS
​ECMWF ​10PM MONDAY ​Townsville/Rollingstone​Category 4
​UKMO​4PM TUESDAY​Townsville/Ayr​Category 4
​GFS​4PM MONDAY​Bowen/Whitsundays​Category 2/3 (borderline)
​ACCESS​10PM MONDAY​Innisfail/Cardwell​Category 2/3 (borderline)
​HWRF​7AM TUESDAY​Townsville/Ayr​Category 4
​CMC​4AM WEDNESDAY​St Lawrence/Yeppoon​Category 3
​NAVGEM​4AM TUESDAY​Townsville​Category 3
​JMA​10PM TUESDAY​Ingham/Cardwell​category 2/3 (borderline)
SUBSCRIBER - DEBBIE VIDEOS - MARCH 25 2017 (no the...
SUBSCRIBERS - PM UPDATE ON FUTURE TC DEBBIE - MARC...
 

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