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TROPICS CONTINUE TO FIRE WITH LATE SEASON CYCLONE/S POSSIBLE

Hot on the heels of TC Debbie, the tropics remain unstable. Multiple trough systems and atmospheric gravity waves are expected to pass across the far north of Australia over the next fortnight. Along these regions of enhanced instability computer forecast models are predicting from one, to as many as three LOW pressure systems to form. Thankfully these regions of cyclogenesis potential are nowhere near the areas that Debbie has just ravaged. However we need to be mindful that there will be a number of small scale trough systems in operation across the Aussie tropics in the next 2 weeks and model skills at long lead times in these situations are very limited. 

Check out the map below which shows these enhanced areas of instability and cyclogenesis potential for next Sunday. Remember given the current setup across the Aussie tropics, model skills will be lower than normal.

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