Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog
COMPUTER MODELS SHIFT CYCLONE THREAT CLOSER TO DARWIN
In a subtle but significant twist of events, computer forecast models have shifted their model forecast tracks of possible future TC Francis closer to Darwin through the afternoon. The Bureau Of Meteorology have yet to adopt this change in latest model trends with Darwin remaining off TC Watch. A Tropical LOW currently lies near the island of Palau Jamdena just under 600kms to the NNE of Darwin. Currently the environment is unfavourable for intensification of this system, but as the LOW drifts south it is likely to deepen as the environment becomes more favourable. As the LOW or cyclone approaches from the north, it is likely to begin moving South-West. The exact timing of this shift in motion is what will determine whether or not Darwin will be in the direct firing line of this system. Remember as with all Tropical Cyclones, you don't necessarily need to have been directly hit with them to feel their effects.
Below are some of the forecast model tracks released in the last few hours that show this system coming much closer to Darwin. Note that at this stage model intensity estimates vary from a strong LOW to a Category 2 intensity system, but it is important to realise that models do not forecast intensity of tropical cyclones well as TC Ernie has just showed us. The timing of closest approach to Darwin is Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.