Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABLE IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS
The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for a Tropical LOW located well north of Darwin. A TCFA is issued when a significant Tropical Cyclone is expected to develop in the next 24 hours. The Bureau Of Meteorology have remained much more conservative instead adopting a MODERATE (20-50%)chance of Tropical Cyclone development in the next two days.
The balance of available computer model evidence, particularly those models that are more reliable are showing the LOW intensifying rapidly from tomorrow. The system is expected to become very small from tomorrow morning onwards and the area of maximum winds could be as compact as 40kms across, while gales may extend to just over 100kms from the centre of the system. Traditionally, these midget systems have a tendency to intensify and weaken extremely rapidly depending on what the environment around them does at the time. Tropical Cyclone Ernie was a great example of this, but it must be noted the environment that this LOW will find itself in isn't quite as good as Ernie's was.
The system is likely to pack its greatest punch south of the centre, but will struggle to develop strong winds on its northern half and it may be because of this expected asymmetrical wind field, that our BoM have limited its chances of becoming an official Aussie TC, even though it is likely to pack a decent punch on its southern side. The future cyclone is expected to remain well off the NW coast of the Northern Territory and in the medium term - remain well off the Kimberley coast of Western Australia before it dies late in the weekend or early next week.