Oz Cyclone Chasers

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WELL HELLO THERE MONSOON!

In some good news for the Top End, the monsoon flow to the north of the continent looks to have become more active today as shown on the IR Satellite Imagery from our weather centre. Darwin had its first decent shower in weeks this afternoon which is a good sign the suppressed garbage you have all endured has finally buggered off! There has also been some good storm and shower activity around Gove and Katherine today while areas in the Barkly District are still forecast ...
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TROPICAL LOW FORMS NEAR MOUNT ISA

A Tropical LOW has formed to the near north of Mount Isa this afternoon and will track into the Northern Territory tomorrow. The LOW will take the heavy showers and thunderstorms away into the Northern Territory with it. The Bureau Of Meteorology in the Northern Territory has issued Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and flood watches for inland rivers over the next few days. Ensemble modelling shows falls of up to 150mm possible tomorrow across the Barkly Districts of the NT and the Tanami region on ...
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Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity expected over the weekend for Inland Queensland. Isolated Heavy Falls Likely

​ A surface trough will enter southwestern Queensland on Friday and move to the east over the weekend.A Warm, Moist and Unstable atmosphere to the east of the trough will combine with NE'ly winds to create enhanced areas of Thunderstorm activity across much of Inland Central and Northern Queensland during Saturday and Sunday. Due to the slow Upper Level winds, thunderstorms will likely be slow moving, so the threat of Local Heavy Rainfall and flash flooding is high over inland areas, especi...
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Massive Inland Thunderstorms fire throughout the Gulf and Peninsula this evening....Storms set to keep firing for days.

​Airmass thunderstorms aided by a loaded atmosphere filled with instability and moisture have exploded this afternoon across the Gulf Country and throughout the Peninsula Districts. The good news? If you live in these areas, the showers and thunderstorms are set to continue for at least the next 7 days!!!!!!!Its been a long time since a big thunderstorm outbreak happened in these parts, and the last few seasons have been very very cruel to farmers.Normanton got hammered this afternoon with ...
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STATE WEATHER VIDEOS - 9 JAN 2017

STATE WEATHER VIDEOS - 9 JAN 2017
TODAY'S SUBSCRIBER VIDEOS HAVE BEEN RELEASED TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC Morning folks, Wow what a night for the Innisfail/Tully region again... Yet another system formed along a convergence zone. More to come. A LOW hit the Gulf Coast too overnight and is tracking into the NT while we are also watching the Solomons LOW which is now born again and heading towards the Central Coral Sea over the next few days (and maybe Queensland) and the Cocos/Christmas LOW which doesn't know what the hell i...
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TWIN TROPICAL LOWS IN THE CORAL SEA COULD MAKE LIFE INTERESTING FOR QUEENSLANDERS NEXT WEEK

TWIN TROPICAL LOWS IN THE CORAL SEA COULD MAKE LIFE INTERESTING FOR QUEENSLANDERS NEXT WEEK
Hot on the heels of the recent active monsoonal system across the state's north and the Central Queensland trough, two Tropical LOWS are about to operate in the Coral Sea over the next few days. Tropical LOW 96P has formed off the coast of Ingham (North Queensland) while Tropical LOW 97P is forming just north of the Solomon Islands. Their longer term track could be interesting for Queensland. TROPICAL LOW 96P96P formed early today off the coast of Ingham. At 4PM it was located at latitude 1...
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BROOME TO FEEL EFFECTS OF TROPICAL LOW OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING

BROOME TO FEEL EFFECTS OF TROPICAL LOW OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING
Tropical LOW 94S is currently located about 150 - 200km to the ESE of Broome and is expected to track slightly west overnight to lie a little closer to the major Kimberley town by morning. As it pushes to the west or west-south-west overnight, the system is expected to whip up winds of 20-30 knots with squally gusts to 40 knots particularly early tomorrow morning. The model below shows winds whipping up between 5 and 8AM tomorrow morning on the Western Kimberley as the LOW makes its closest...
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HAPPY DAYS AHEAD FOR TOP END LOW

​It's always difficult to pin the tail on the donkey or in this case pinpoint the low over the Top End. The low has moved slowly west over the last 24hours which was a little earlier than a few models had anticipated. The latest BOM Tropical Cyclone Outlook has it located at 14.3S 130.0E which is just to the east of Port Keats, we have overlayed it on our 500M Visible Sattelite Image out of the OCC Subscriber Weather Centre below.​For the keen radar watches you might be forgiven f...
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WILL THIS BECOME AUSTRALIA'S NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE?

The NT LOW has finally made its decision to move west towards the Western Top End. All eyes will now be on the LOW and whether it can get offshore and intensify. Both the Bureau Of Meteorology in Darwin and Perth are mentioning the possibility of this system intensifying if it can get offshore. In fact this system has two chances to intensify. The first is in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf later tomorrow and Wednesday while the second could be off the Pilbara coastline if it can get offshore.&nb...
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WILL ALFRED GIVE WA A GOOD BLOW?

​After a disappointingly weak and short effort from Yvette, Alfred is the next cab off the Aussie cyclone ranks. But does WA have a chance of getting a decent blow from Alfred over the next week? The short answer is yes there is a chance that Alfred can develop during the week and yes there is a chance he can hit the WA coast. But is it a decent chance? The jury is out on that one. Read on if you're keen to find out more. A Tropical LOW is currently over land in the...
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TOP END TO COP A DRENCHING

​The NT low is on the move north and can be clearly seen on the OCC weather centres 500m Visible satellite image loop. At this stage the low is just to the south of Katherine but has shown signs of accelerating north. As a consequence of the low moving closer, the monsoonal flow over Darwin and the western Top End finally has a 'trigger' again and the weather should begin to deteriorate quite rapidly this evening and continue for the next few days.​The image below shows how the low is effectivel...
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WET START TO 2017 EXPECTED

As the sun sets on the final day of 2016, for many of us in the North, the year will be remembered as a very dull, dry and uninteresting one weather wise. The good news is that 2017 is set to kick off with a bang across much of Northern Australia. The monsoon is set to create at least a couple LOW pressure systems and ensure that most if not all of Northern Australia gets a nice drink to start the year off in the next week to 10 days. The image above shows the widespread nature of the ...
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MONSOON TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND 2-3 LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN AUSTRALIA

As we can see in the image above widespread heavy falls of rain are expected over the next 10 days due to the redevelopment and intensification of the monsoon trough. Along the trough we see anywehere between one and three tropical LOWS forming in the next 10 days. Their locations are likely to be:​Barkly region of NT near Tennant Creek tracking north-west towards the Western Top End. If this system gets off the coast of the NT or Kimberley, it may develop into a Tropical Cyclone mid t...
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THE NORTHERN TERRITORY MONSOON LOW HAS FORMED

A LOW has formed in the Barkly region of the Northern Territory near Tennant Creek  in the past few hours and will begin tracking in a northerly direction over the next 2 days. The Bureau Of Meteorology in Darwin mention that the LOW is likely to develop further if it moves over water late in the weekend. Find out more about this LOW and its long term cyclone potential by supporting our work and becoming an OCC subscriber at www.ozcyclonechasers.com.au/subscribeWatch a high res sa...
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Monsoon Trough continues to strengthen

Monsoonal conditions continuing to establish themselves across the Top End and the Gulf. It even looks as though a low is trying to get itself organised to the south of Katherine but still early days yet. Models agree on an active Monsoon for the NT Coast but still a little uncertainty with regard to where any lows will initially form. Any lows that do form over the Top End are likely to take an initial NW track with some modelling going for a deepening one in the Joseph Bonaparte...
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MONSOON LOWS TO FORM FOR QLD AND THE NT

​The monsoon continues to create squally showers and storms, but these are likely to pale into insignificance once it fully develops over the weekend and into next week. The new Year is set to herald two tropical LOWS that are likely to form along the trough. One LOW is likely to form off the coast of Cairns while another is expected to form around the base of the Top End of the Territory. Models are still in general disagreement on the exact track forecasts of these two monsoonal...
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MONSOON TO RETURN WITH A VENGEANCE TO QLD AND THE NT

The monsoon is getting set for a re-appearance across Northern Australia and while the NT has already benefited from it, it looks as though far Northern Queensland will get to join in the fun as well this time around.  Tropical Cyclone Nock-Ten is weakening near the Philippines and once it dies, a strong burst of monsoonal NE winds will cross the equator and become our next burst of the Aussie NW monsoon. This is all set to take place starting around Mid-week and by the end of the week, the...
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NOCK-TEN DOWNGRADED - MANILA SPARED FROM THE WORST

Great news as this morning as land interaction a track a little further south than initially forecast have resulted in a downgrade of the winds to be experienced over downtown Manila later today. Nock-Ten was a Cat 5 with winds estimated by the JTWC to be gusting to 305km/hr and a pressure of 915Hpa has since been downgraded after crossing some of the rugged terrain of the Philippines. At this stage downtown Manila should experience sustained northerly winds of 20-30 knots wi...
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HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS ON QUEENSLAND'S CENTRAL COAST

The combination of an upper trough and surface convergence has resulted in some significant rainfall on the Central Queensland coastline over the past 24 hours.  The BoM graphic below shows some big falls occurring with some of the most notable ones being Bundy - 139mm (with various locations around the city picking up to 160mm)Cooran - 105mmGympie - 54mmMiddlemount - 50mmWidespread 20-50mm rain fell in SEQ yesterday as well. More moderate to possibly heavy falls are expected toda...
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WILD NIGHT AHEAD FOR THE PHILIPPINES AS CAT 5 CYCLONE BEARS DOWN

Tropical Cyclone Nock-Ten remains a very strong Category 5 system as it approaches the Philippines tonight. The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre estimates that the system packs wind gusts to 305km/hr. The system is likely to pass very close to Manila tomorrow afternoon and still maintain around a Category Three intensity. Nock Ten is reported to be the strongest late-season Tropical Cyclone recorded in the region in over 50 years (since TC Susan in 1963). The satellite estimated minimum pressur...
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