Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog

Welcome to our OCC Blog! We will be posting frequently on this blog so please check back for new items regularly. You can also subscribe to get notifications of new posts.

HEAVY RAIN ON THE WAY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN QUEENSLAND

A major rain event is on the way for many Queenslanders later this week. Warm moist easterly winds from the Coral Sea will be uplifted at the surface by a surface trough moving SW from the ocean. At the same time, cold upper level air from a trough and upper LOW in South Australia will move east and create a sharp thermal gradient between the surface and the upper levels of the atmosphere. The combination of these two factors will result in some major dry season rainfall for coastal and inland p...
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YET ANOTHER OUT OF SEASON CYCLONE - THIS ONE'S FOR FIJI

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In the Southern hemisphere cyclone season that knows no time limits, Tropical Cyclone Ella has formed and is heading west towards Fiji. The tiny category one cyclone is expected to possibly nudge Category Two later today or tonight before weakening on approach to Fiji's Vanua Levu and Taveuni Islands. The system is likely to approach later tomorrow in a weakening state and will only pack a significant punch on its southern side. Given the system's tiny size, and expected weakening trend on appro...
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CORAL SEA SET TO FIRE UP AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK

In the Aussie cyclone season that initially didn't want to begin and now doesn't want to end, a new LOW is set to form in the far North-Eastern Coral Sea and begin moving westwards later next week. Early indications are that the LOW will form along a trough line in the South-West Pacific Ocean. The exact origin varies from around the Solomon Islands through to Vanuatu but models are clearly intent on moving it westwards into the Coral Sea by next weekend.  Of course, it is too early to spec...
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TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABLE IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for a Tropical LOW located well north of Darwin. A TCFA is issued when a significant Tropical Cyclone is expected to develop in the next 24 hours. The Bureau Of Meteorology have remained much more conservative instead adopting a MODERATE (20-50%)chance of Tropical Cyclone development in the next two days.  The balance of available computer model evidence, particularly those models that are more reliable are showi...
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - FUTURE AUSSIE CYCLONES VIDEO - APRIL 21 2017

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - FUTURE AUSSIE CYCLONES VIDEO - APRIL 21 2017
A Tropical LOW will form and deepen next week north of Australia and then begin moving closer to the coast. We take a look at its future and where it is likely to go in the video below.  If you'd like to access daily video updates on this system as it forms along with enhanced weather analysis and high-resolution weather graphics, consider supporting what we do by becoming an OCC subscriber. Head to ozcyclonechasers.com.au/subscribe   If you'd like to access daily video updat...
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - STATE WEATHER VIDEO UPDATES - 21 APRIL 2017

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - STATE WEATHER VIDEO UPDATES - 21 APRIL 2017
Morning folks,  Please find your weather videos attached for Queensland, NT and WA  We will be issuing a Future Aussie Cyclones Video to subscribers and the general public this evening around 6:00PM Q time dealing with the upcoming Tropical LOW/Cyclone expected next week.  Subscribers you will then have a video forecast update specifically dealing with this system daily from tomorrow morning.  If you'd like to support our work and gain access to some of Australia's ...
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - PUBLIC CYCLONE UPDATE 12TH APRIL 2017

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - PUBLIC CYCLONE UPDATE 12TH APRIL 2017
Evening folks,  We wrap up the NT LOW and wrap up the rumours of a Coral Sea LOW/cyclone.  If you'd like to support our work in documenting tropical cyclones and gain access to comprehensive cyclone information next season, become an OCC subscriber at ozcyclonechasers.com.au/subscribe
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - PUBLIC CYCLONE VIDEO 11 APRIL 2017

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - PUBLIC CYCLONE VIDEO 11 APRIL 2017
Good evening everyone,  The Cyclone Warning has been cancelled for Darwin but a Severe Weather Warning remains current. The Cyclone Warning has now been extended to residents in the North Kimberley. We talk about all the latest happenings with the NT LOW as well as the circulation forming in the Coral Sea.  If you'd like access to these updates daily during the wet season next year become an Oz Cyclone Chasers subscriber and help us document more cyclones while gaining access to A...
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - TROPICAL CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE - 10TH APRIL 2017

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - TROPICAL CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE - 10TH APRIL 2017
Evening everyone the Aussie Tropics continue to fire up late this season with Queensland, NT and WA all seeing Tropical LOWS over the next few days. Please check out this brief video update which goes through all of the cyclones/LOWS in and around the Australian region over the next few days.  For a more comprehensive look, become an OCC Subscriber, assist us in our documentary efforts and gain access to in-depth cyclone analysis, forecasts and information. Head to ozcyclonechasers.com.au/s...
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COMPUTER MODELS SHIFT CYCLONE THREAT CLOSER TO DARWIN

COMPUTER MODELS SHIFT CYCLONE THREAT CLOSER TO DARWIN
In a subtle but significant twist of events, computer forecast models have shifted their model forecast tracks of possible future TC Francis closer to Darwin through the afternoon. The Bureau Of Meteorology have yet to adopt this change in latest model trends with Darwin remaining off TC Watch.  A Tropical LOW currently lies near the island of Palau Jamdena just under 600kms to the NNE of Darwin. Currently the environment is unfavourable for intensification of this system, bu...
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TC CHANCES UPGRADED TO MODERATE FOR NW TOP END COAST INCLUDING TIWI ISLANDS AND DARWIN

​We have been monitoring the Monsoon Trough development in the Arafura Sea for some time now and to be honest have been reluctant to say much given so much model uncertainty. At this stage the Monsoon Trough is becoming very active but it is also a complex setup with a smaller secondary low or eddy possible near Gove. At lunchtime Saturday the main low is roughly 520kms NW of Maningrida and the BOM have mentioned it in their TC Outlook attached further below. They give it a moderate ch...
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TROPICS CONTINUE TO FIRE WITH LATE SEASON CYCLONE/S POSSIBLE

Hot on the heels of TC Debbie, the tropics remain unstable. Multiple trough systems and atmospheric gravity waves are expected to pass across the far north of Australia over the next fortnight. Along these regions of enhanced instability computer forecast models are predicting from one, to as many as three LOW pressure systems to form. Thankfully these regions of cyclogenesis potential are nowhere near the areas that Debbie has just ravaged . However we need to be mindful that there will be...
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CYCLONE DEBBIE VIDEO UPDATE MARCH 28 PM

CYCLONE DEBBIE VIDEO UPDATE MARCH 28 PM
Evening folks, yay I finally got Debbie's video uploaded three hours after it was completed. that's how slow our net is right now. Looks like Debbie will affect much of the southern half of the state over the next 2-3 days. Thanks for joining us on the Debbie coverage today and last night. Unfortunately the net speeds at Airlie were too slow to allow us to live stream the backend :(  We will resume our subscriber videos on Friday morning with our three state updates and we will take a ...
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - CYCLONE UPDATE - DEBBIE - MARCH 27 PM

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - CYCLONE UPDATE - DEBBIE - MARCH 27 PM
Evening everyone, \ We take a final look at Debbie tonight. This video is also available to subscribers on the CURRENT AUSSIE CYCLONES page Subscribers we will be live streaming overnight stay tuned for details. We will also be live streaming a static stream for the general public on facebook Live over the next 24 hours.  Have a safe night and stay tuned for details. Remember to check the CHASE page for details on our current chase. Become a subscriber and assist us in our doco efforts whil...
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - CYCLONE DEBBIE VIDEO UPDATE MARCH 26PM

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - CYCLONE DEBBIE VIDEO UPDATE MARCH 26PM
Evening folks, please see this evening's OCC video update on TC Debbie. This video is also available to subscribers on the CURRENT AUSSIE CYCLONES PAGE Become an OCC Subscriber and gain access to our special subscriber benefits while supporting our documentary efforts. www.ozcyclonechasers.com.au/subscribe
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - TC DEBBIE PUBLIC VIDEO UPDATE - MARCH 25 2017

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - TC DEBBIE PUBLIC VIDEO UPDATE - MARCH 25 2017
Tropical Cyclone Debbie has been slowly intensifying through the day and is exhibiting some strong convection beginning to wrap around the core circulation this evening. Debbie is expected to adopt a track towards the Queensland coastline between Cairns and Mackay (with particular focus between Ingham and Bowen) and begin intensifying more rapidly from overnight tonight and will then continue to intensify all the way until landfall. Landfall should take place sometime on Tuesday. A Category 3 - ...
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QUEENSLAND CYCLONE - MARCH 24 - PM UPDATE

QUEENSLAND CYCLONE - MARCH 24 - PM UPDATE
​We answer some burning questions about the Future Queensland Cyclone tonight. and check out the models. Please see below for details ​WHAT HAS HAPPENED TODAY WITH THE LOW? ​The LOW has gradually moved in a SSE direction through the day quite slowly. The LOW has also gradually strengthened through the day. ​WHEN WILL IT BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE? ​Models are adamant tomorrow will be the day the system will reach Tropical Cyclone status ​WHERE IS IT GOING TO GO? ​During tomorrow (probably la...
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THE QUEENSLAND CYCLONE - MARCH 23 2017 - LATEST INFO

THE QUEENSLAND CYCLONE - MARCH 23 2017 - LATEST INFO
A Tropical LOW is deepening to the north of Willis Island and will track southwards for the next 24 hours. This LOW is then set to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone over the weekend before moving west to hit the coast on Monday or Tuesday. We have taken some of your most frequently asked questions and passed them onto OCC's Nitso who has answered them below. If this Q and A is popular with the masses, Nitso will continue it, if people aren't interested then we won't do it again. REMEMBER THESE A...
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WESTERN AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL LOW LANDFALL VIDEO UPDATE

WESTERN AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL LOW LANDFALL VIDEO UPDATE
A Tropical LOW is approaching Port Hedland and should make landfall in the vicinity of Port Hedland this afternoon/evening. Please take a look at the video update below for more details.  Another LOW is developing near the Cocos Islands.  If you liked this video update, consider becoming an OCC Subscriber. Subscribers get these videos regularly when a Tropical LOW or cyclone is in play across the Australian Area Of Responsibility.  www.ozcyclonechasers.com.au/subscribe
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TROPICAL LOW TO FORM IN CORAL SEA AND BEGIN MOVING TOWARDS QUEENSLAND

TROPICAL LOW TO FORM IN CORAL SEA AND BEGIN MOVING TOWARDS QUEENSLAND
​Computer models indicate a Tropical LOW will begin forming in the far North-Eastern Coral Sea over the next 24-48 hours and adopt a westerly track towards Queensland over the next week. About 30% of modelling indicates that this system will deepen sufficiently to become a Tropical Cyclone, while approximately 70% of computer models continue to indicate that this system will likely remain a LOW pressure system as it hits the Queensland coast next week.  Once guidance begins to solidify...
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