Oz Cyclone Chasers

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TROPICAL CYCLONE DINEO HITS MOZAMBIQUE

Tropical Cyclone Dineo hit Mozambique's (East Africa) coastline a little after 1AM this morning Queensland time. The system made landfall as a Category 3 Tropical Cyclone on the Australian scale with wind gusts likely to have been in the vicinity of 160 - 180km/hr. The Tropical Cyclone was the strongest one to hit Mozambique's coastline since TC Jokwe in 2008. Dineo is the third tropical cyclone of the so-far very quiet SW Indian Ocean cyclone season (The SW Indian Ocean season ru...
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Stunning Central Qld Sunset

After a hot and humid day in Mackay, we were treated to a stunning sunset! 
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GULF LOW TO FORM LATE THIS WEEK - NO THREAT TO NORTH QUEENSLAND COAST

Hot on the heels of the Western Australian LOW, another LOW is likely to form in the Gulf Of Carpentaria in a couple of days. Contrary to what some media outlets and social media pages might have you believe there is no threat of this system becoming a tropical cyclone off the Far Northern Queensland coast , we've even heard of some ridiculous predictions of a cyclone or LOW hitting our lovely home - Townsville - by Saturday. This is utter garbage. The system is likely to for...
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CYCLONE OR NOT IT DOESN'T MATTER - PILBARA COAST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE LOW END CYCLONIC CONDITIONS

A Tropical LOW is developing near the Kimberley coastline. The LOW will move offshore tomorrow and develop further. On Wednesday the LOW will move south and lie near or on the Pilbara coast. Gales with damaging wind gusts will develop along the Pilbara coast and widespread rain will also accompany these strong winds. Let's take a look at what computer models have to say. The Euro model has a borderline Category One system making landfall on Wednesday evening near Roebourne with winds g...
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THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM

Very active monsoonal conditions are expected in the Top End from today with the NW Coast including Darwin expecting squally conditions by Sunday night. Interestingly, a very small surface eddy formed just to the east of Darwin this morning which could locally enhance rainfall in the region. These types of features are very common in Monsoon Troughs and are not easy to forecast. As the trough slowly migrates southwards to near the base of the Top End this week, squally NW winds wi...
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MONSOON TO FIRE UP WITH MULTIPLE LOWS POSSIBLE

Well by now we should all know that the monsoon is firing up and will create a LOW for Western Australia, but did you know latest computer model outputs from multiple weather models show the Gulf Of Carpentaria joining in on the action with a LOW/cyclone of their own? A couple of models even show a LOW in the Coral Sea off Queensland's North-East coast. The primary action of course is already showing signs of forming soon near Timor. That first LOW will remain weak and w...
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ANOTHER LOW FOR WESTERN AUSTRALIA

ANOTHER LOW FOR WESTERN AUSTRALIA
​The monsoon is regenerating and a LOW will form along it over the next few days most likely in the Timor Sea or on the Top End coastline of the Territory. This LOW is likely to remain weak, broad (large) and slow moving for a few days before moving in a WSW direction next week roughly parallel to the coast. The track seems to be eerily similar to the LOW that just went through last week. Computer models are showing that the LOW will lie in an unfavorable developmental environment...
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WIDESPREAD COASTAL RAIN ON THE WAY FOR NE QUEENSLAND

WIDESPREAD COASTAL RAIN ON THE WAY FOR NE QUEENSLAND
A Coral Sea trough system will push west tomorrow and Tuesday, making landfall later on Tuesday or early Wednesday across NE Queensland. This will result in some moderate to heavy falls of rain across the NE Queensland coast over the next few days. Showers begin tomorrow from this feature, but the heavier totals don't arrive until the trough makes it onshore Tuesday/Tuesday night and then are expected to continue into Wednesday before easing off on Thursday. More details in the images ...
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OCC - PUBLIC VIDEO UPDATE ON WA TROPICAL CYCLONE - 27 JAN 2017

OCC - PUBLIC VIDEO UPDATE ON WA TROPICAL CYCLONE - 27 JAN 2017
​Good evening everyone, please find below a video update on what is going on with the WA Tropical LOW as it tracks WSW off the Pilbara coastline. The JTWC has officially called this Tropical Cyclone 03S, the Aussie BoM will likely follow suit over the next 12-24 hours and call it Alfred. We will have another public update on January 28 around 7:00PM Queensland time. For a more comprehensive look at this system and all current and upcoming Aussie cyclones, support our work and become an...
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STATE WEATHER VIDEO UPDATES - 23 JANUARY 2017

STATE WEATHER VIDEO UPDATES - 23 JANUARY 2017
​A Tropical LOW is forming along the Western Gulf Coast and moving into the Northern Territory and could become a Tropical Cyclone off WA late in the week. A weak LOW is also forming in the Northern Coral Sea and another weak one near Christmas Island. A surface change pushing through Queensland's Central Coast is creating scattered showers and storms, widespread rain in the Territory and a fairly quiet day across W.A today is expected. Please find your state weather video updates belo...
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TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

The monsoon is ready to fire up again with a Tropical LOW likely to form along it early next week. If this LOW can get itself over water then it has reasonable potential to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone. The LOW is likely to form near the Top End coast of the Northern Territory, but as the image shows above there are two possible formation locations on Monday or Tuesday and it is unclear which of these formation locations will become the dominant region for cyclogenesis. The LOW is...
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WELL HELLO THERE MONSOON!

In some good news for the Top End, the monsoon flow to the north of the continent looks to have become more active today as shown on the IR Satellite Imagery from our weather centre. Darwin had its first decent shower in weeks this afternoon which is a good sign the suppressed garbage you have all endured has finally buggered off! There has also been some good storm and shower activity around Gove and Katherine today while areas in the Barkly District are still forecast ...
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TROPICAL LOW FORMS NEAR MOUNT ISA

A Tropical LOW has formed to the near north of Mount Isa this afternoon and will track into the Northern Territory tomorrow. The LOW will take the heavy showers and thunderstorms away into the Northern Territory with it. The Bureau Of Meteorology in the Northern Territory has issued Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and flood watches for inland rivers over the next few days. Ensemble modelling shows falls of up to 150mm possible tomorrow across the Barkly Districts of the NT and the Tanami region on ...
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Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity expected over the weekend for Inland Queensland. Isolated Heavy Falls Likely

​ A surface trough will enter southwestern Queensland on Friday and move to the east over the weekend.A Warm, Moist and Unstable atmosphere to the east of the trough will combine with NE'ly winds to create enhanced areas of Thunderstorm activity across much of Inland Central and Northern Queensland during Saturday and Sunday. Due to the slow Upper Level winds, thunderstorms will likely be slow moving, so the threat of Local Heavy Rainfall and flash flooding is high over inland areas, especi...
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Massive Inland Thunderstorms fire throughout the Gulf and Peninsula this evening....Storms set to keep firing for days.

​Airmass thunderstorms aided by a loaded atmosphere filled with instability and moisture have exploded this afternoon across the Gulf Country and throughout the Peninsula Districts. The good news? If you live in these areas, the showers and thunderstorms are set to continue for at least the next 7 days!!!!!!!Its been a long time since a big thunderstorm outbreak happened in these parts, and the last few seasons have been very very cruel to farmers.Normanton got hammered this afternoon with ...
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STATE WEATHER VIDEOS - 9 JAN 2017

STATE WEATHER VIDEOS - 9 JAN 2017
TODAY'S SUBSCRIBER VIDEOS HAVE BEEN RELEASED TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC Morning folks, Wow what a night for the Innisfail/Tully region again... Yet another system formed along a convergence zone. More to come. A LOW hit the Gulf Coast too overnight and is tracking into the NT while we are also watching the Solomons LOW which is now born again and heading towards the Central Coral Sea over the next few days (and maybe Queensland) and the Cocos/Christmas LOW which doesn't know what the hell i...
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TWIN TROPICAL LOWS IN THE CORAL SEA COULD MAKE LIFE INTERESTING FOR QUEENSLANDERS NEXT WEEK

TWIN TROPICAL LOWS IN THE CORAL SEA COULD MAKE LIFE INTERESTING FOR QUEENSLANDERS NEXT WEEK
Hot on the heels of the recent active monsoonal system across the state's north and the Central Queensland trough, two Tropical LOWS are about to operate in the Coral Sea over the next few days. Tropical LOW 96P has formed off the coast of Ingham (North Queensland) while Tropical LOW 97P is forming just north of the Solomon Islands. Their longer term track could be interesting for Queensland. TROPICAL LOW 96P96P formed early today off the coast of Ingham. At 4PM it was located at latitude 1...
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BROOME TO FEEL EFFECTS OF TROPICAL LOW OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING

BROOME TO FEEL EFFECTS OF TROPICAL LOW OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING
Tropical LOW 94S is currently located about 150 - 200km to the ESE of Broome and is expected to track slightly west overnight to lie a little closer to the major Kimberley town by morning. As it pushes to the west or west-south-west overnight, the system is expected to whip up winds of 20-30 knots with squally gusts to 40 knots particularly early tomorrow morning. The model below shows winds whipping up between 5 and 8AM tomorrow morning on the Western Kimberley as the LOW makes its closest...
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HAPPY DAYS AHEAD FOR TOP END LOW

​It's always difficult to pin the tail on the donkey or in this case pinpoint the low over the Top End. The low has moved slowly west over the last 24hours which was a little earlier than a few models had anticipated. The latest BOM Tropical Cyclone Outlook has it located at 14.3S 130.0E which is just to the east of Port Keats, we have overlayed it on our 500M Visible Sattelite Image out of the OCC Subscriber Weather Centre below.​For the keen radar watches you might be forgiven f...
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WILL THIS BECOME AUSTRALIA'S NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE?

The NT LOW has finally made its decision to move west towards the Western Top End. All eyes will now be on the LOW and whether it can get offshore and intensify. Both the Bureau Of Meteorology in Darwin and Perth are mentioning the possibility of this system intensifying if it can get offshore. In fact this system has two chances to intensify. The first is in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf later tomorrow and Wednesday while the second could be off the Pilbara coastline if it can get offshore.&nb...
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