Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog
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G'day folks the day has arrived. The new Oz Cyclone Chasers Weather Centre Version 2 has been released. Become your own weather forecaster with the Oz Cyclone Chasers Weather Centre Version 2.0. This is a great little intro video to the capabili...
A major rain event is on the way for many Queenslanders later this week. Warm moist easterly winds from the Coral Sea will be uplifted at the surface by a surface trough moving SW from the ocean. At the same time, cold upper level air from a trough and upper LOW in South Australia will move east and create a sharp thermal gradient between the surface and the upper levels of the atmosphere. The combination of these two factors will result in some major dry season rainfall for coastal and inland p...
In the Aussie cyclone season that initially didn't want to begin and now doesn't want to end, a new LOW is set to form in the far North-Eastern Coral Sea and begin moving westwards later next week. Early indications are that the LOW will form along a trough line in the South-West Pacific Ocean. The exact origin varies from around the Solomon Islands through to Vanuatu but models are clearly intent on moving it westwards into the Coral Sea by next weekend. Of course, it is too early to spec...
The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for a Tropical LOW located well north of Darwin. A TCFA is issued when a significant Tropical Cyclone is expected to develop in the next 24 hours. The Bureau Of Meteorology have remained much more conservative instead adopting a MODERATE (20-50%)chance of Tropical Cyclone development in the next two days. The balance of available computer model evidence, particularly those models that are more reliable are showi...
We have been monitoring the Monsoon Trough development in the Arafura Sea for some time now and to be honest have been reluctant to say much given so much model uncertainty. At this stage the Monsoon Trough is becoming very active but it is also a complex setup with a smaller secondary low or eddy possible near Gove. At lunchtime Saturday the main low is roughly 520kms NW of Maningrida and the BOM have mentioned it in their TC Outlook attached further below. They give it a moderate ch...
Hot on the heels of TC Debbie, the tropics remain unstable. Multiple trough systems and atmospheric gravity waves are expected to pass across the far north of Australia over the next fortnight. Along these regions of enhanced instability computer forecast models are predicting from one, to as many as three LOW pressure systems to form. Thankfully these regions of cyclogenesis potential are nowhere near the areas that Debbie has just ravaged . However we need to be mindful that there will be...