Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog

Welcome to our OCC Blog! We will be posting frequently on this blog so please check back for new items regularly. You can also subscribe to get notifications of new posts.

WIDESPREAD COASTAL RAIN ON THE WAY FOR NE QUEENSLAND

WIDESPREAD COASTAL RAIN ON THE WAY FOR NE QUEENSLAND
A Coral Sea trough system will push west tomorrow and Tuesday, making landfall later on Tuesday or early Wednesday across NE Queensland. This will result in some moderate to heavy falls of rain across the NE Queensland coast over the next few days. Showers begin tomorrow from this feature, but the heavier totals don't arrive until the trough makes it onshore Tuesday/Tuesday night and then are expected to continue into Wednesday before easing off on Thursday. More details in the images ...
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OCC - PUBLIC VIDEO UPDATE ON WA TROPICAL CYCLONE - 27 JAN 2017

OCC - PUBLIC VIDEO UPDATE ON WA TROPICAL CYCLONE - 27 JAN 2017
​Good evening everyone, please find below a video update on what is going on with the WA Tropical LOW as it tracks WSW off the Pilbara coastline. The JTWC has officially called this Tropical Cyclone 03S, the Aussie BoM will likely follow suit over the next 12-24 hours and call it Alfred. We will have another public update on January 28 around 7:00PM Queensland time.  For a more comprehensive look at this system and all current and upcoming Aussie cyclones, support our work and become a...
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STATE WEATHER VIDEO UPDATES - 23 JANUARY 2017

STATE WEATHER VIDEO UPDATES - 23 JANUARY 2017
​A Tropical LOW is forming along the Western Gulf Coast and moving into the Northern Territory and could become a Tropical Cyclone off WA late in the week. A weak LOW is also forming in the Northern Coral Sea and another weak one near Christmas Island.  A surface change pushing through Queensland's Central Coast is creating scattered showers and storms, widespread rain in the Territory and a fairly quiet day across W.A today is expected.  Please find your state weather video updates be...
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TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK

The monsoon is ready to fire up again with a Tropical LOW likely to form along it early next week. If this LOW can get itself over water then it has reasonable potential to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone. The LOW is likely to form near the Top End coast of the Northern Territory, but as the image shows above there are two possible formation locations on Monday or Tuesday and it is unclear which of these formation locations will become the dominant region for cyclogenesis . The LOW i...
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WELL HELLO THERE MONSOON!

In some good news for the Top End, the monsoon flow to the north of the continent looks to have become more active today as shown on the IR Satellite Imagery from our weather centre. Darwin had its first decent shower in weeks this afternoon which is a good sign the suppressed garbage you have all endured has finally buggered off! There has also been some good storm and shower activity around Gove and Katherine today while areas in the Barkly District are still forecast ...
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TROPICAL LOW FORMS NEAR MOUNT ISA

A Tropical LOW has formed to the near north of Mount Isa this afternoon and will track into the Northern Territory tomorrow. The LOW will take the heavy showers and thunderstorms away into the Northern Territory with it. The Bureau Of Meteorology in the Northern Territory has issued Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and flood watches for inland rivers over the next few days. Ensemble modelling shows falls of up to 150mm possible tomorrow across the Barkly Districts of the NT and the Tanami region on ...
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Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity expected over the weekend for Inland Queensland. Isolated Heavy Falls Likely

​ A surface trough will enter southwestern Queensland on Friday and move to the east over the weekend. A Warm, Moist and Unstable atmosphere to the east of the trough will combine with NE'ly winds to create enhanced areas of Thunderstorm activity across much of Inland Central and Northern Queensland during Saturday and Sunday.  Due to the slow Upper Level winds, thunderstorms will likely be slow moving, so the threat of Local Heavy Rainfall and flash flooding is high over inland areas, espe...
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Massive Inland Thunderstorms fire throughout the Gulf and Peninsula this evening....Storms set to keep firing for days.

​Airmass thunderstorms aided by a loaded atmosphere filled with instability and moisture have exploded this afternoon across the Gulf Country and throughout the Peninsula Districts.  The good news? If you live in these areas, the showers and thunderstorms are set to continue for at least the next 7 days!!!!!!! Its been a long time since a big thunderstorm outbreak happened in these parts, and the last few seasons have been very very cruel to farmers. Normanton got hammered this afternoon wi...
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STATE WEATHER VIDEOS - 9 JAN 2017

STATE WEATHER VIDEOS - 9 JAN 2017
TODAY'S SUBSCRIBER VIDEOS HAVE BEEN RELEASED TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC  Morning folks,  Wow what a night for the Innisfail/Tully region again... Yet another system formed along a convergence zone. More to come. A LOW hit the Gulf Coast too overnight and is tracking into the NT while we are also watching the Solomons LOW which is now born again and heading towards the Central Coral Sea over the next few days (and maybe Queensland) and the Cocos/Christmas LOW which doesn't know what the hell...
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TWIN TROPICAL LOWS IN THE CORAL SEA COULD MAKE LIFE INTERESTING FOR QUEENSLANDERS NEXT WEEK

TWIN TROPICAL LOWS IN THE CORAL SEA COULD MAKE LIFE INTERESTING FOR QUEENSLANDERS NEXT WEEK
Hot on the heels of the recent active monsoonal system across the state's north and the Central Queensland trough, two Tropical LOWS are about to operate in the Coral Sea over the next few days. Tropical LOW 96P has formed off the coast of Ingham (North Queensland) while Tropical LOW 97P is forming just north of the Solomon Islands. Their longer term track could be interesting for Queensland.  TROPICAL LOW 96P 96P formed early today off the coast of Ingham. At 4PM it was located at latitude...
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BROOME TO FEEL EFFECTS OF TROPICAL LOW OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING

BROOME TO FEEL EFFECTS OF TROPICAL LOW OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING
Tropical LOW 94S is currently located about 150 - 200km to the ESE of Broome and is expected to track slightly west overnight to lie a little closer to the major Kimberley town by morning. As it pushes to the west or west-south-west overnight, the system is expected to whip up winds of 20-30 knots with squally gusts to 40 knots particularly early tomorrow morning. The model below shows winds whipping up between 5 and 8AM tomorrow morning on the Western Kimberley as the LOW makes its closest...
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HAPPY DAYS AHEAD FOR TOP END LOW

​It's always difficult to pin the tail on the donkey or in this case pinpoint the low over the Top End. The low has moved slowly west over the last 24hours which was a little earlier than a few models had anticipated. The latest BOM Tropical Cyclone Outlook has it located at 14.3S 130.0E which is just to the east of Port Keats, we have overlayed it on our 500M Visible Sattelite Image out of the  OCC Subscriber Weather Centre below. ​For the keen radar watches you might be forgiven...
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WILL THIS BECOME AUSTRALIA'S NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE?

The NT LOW has finally made its decision to move west towards the Western Top End. All eyes will now be on the LOW and whether it can get offshore and intensify. Both the Bureau Of Meteorology in Darwin and Perth are mentioning the possibility of this system intensifying if it can get offshore. In fact this system has two chances to intensify. The first is in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf later tomorrow and Wednesday while the second could be off the Pilbara coastline if it can get offshore.&nb...
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WILL ALFRED GIVE WA A GOOD BLOW?

​After a disappointingly weak and short effort from Yvette, Alfred is the next cab off the Aussie cyclone ranks. But does WA have a chance of getting a decent blow from Alfred over the next week?  The short answer is yes there is a chance that Alfred can develop during the week and yes there is a chance he can hit the WA coast. But is it a decent chance? The jury is out on that one. Read on if you're keen to find out more.  A Tropical LOW is currently over land in t...
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TOP END TO COP A DRENCHING

​The NT low is on the move north and can be clearly seen on the OCC weather centres 500m Visible satellite image loop. At this stage the low is just to the south of Katherine but has shown signs of accelerating north. As a consequence of the low moving closer, the monsoonal flow over Darwin and the western Top End finally has a 'trigger' again and the weather should begin to deteriorate quite rapidly this evening and continue for the next few days. ​The image below shows how the low is effective...
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WET START TO 2017 EXPECTED

As the sun sets on the final day of 2016, for many of us in the North, the year  will be remembered as a very dull, dry and uninteresting one weather wise. The good news is that 2017 is set to kick off with a bang across much of Northern Australia. The monsoon is set to create at least a couple LOW pressure systems and ensure that most if not all of Northern Australia gets a nice drink to start the year off in the next week to 10 days. The image above shows the widespread nature of the...
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MONSOON TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAIN AND 2-3 LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN AUSTRALIA

As we can see in the image above widespread heavy falls of rain are expected over the next 10 days due to the redevelopment and intensification of the monsoon trough. Along the trough we see anywehere between one and three tropical LOWS forming in the next 10 days.  Their locations are likely to be: ​Barkly region of NT near Tennant Creek tracking north-west towards the Western Top End. If this system gets off the coast of the NT or Kimberley, it may develop into a Tropical Cyclone mid...
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THE NORTHERN TERRITORY MONSOON LOW HAS FORMED

A LOW has formed in the Barkly region of the Northern Territory near Tennant Creek  in the past few hours and will begin tracking in a northerly direction over the next 2 days. The Bureau Of Meteorology in Darwin mention that the LOW is likely to develop further if it moves over water late in the weekend.  Find out more about this LOW and its long term cyclone potential by supporting our work and becoming an OCC subscriber at www.ozcyclonechasers.com.au/subscribe Watch a high res ...
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Monsoon Trough continues to strengthen

Monsoonal conditions continuing to establish themselves across the Top End and the Gulf. It even looks as though a low is trying to get itself organised to the south of Katherine but still early days yet. Models agree on an active Monsoon for the NT Coast but still a little uncertainty with regard to where any lows will initially form.  Any lows that do form over the Top End are likely to take an initial NW track with some modelling going for a deepening one in the Joseph Bonapart...
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MONSOON LOWS TO FORM FOR QLD AND THE NT

​The monsoon continues to create squally showers and storms, but these are likely to pale into insignificance once it fully develops over the weekend and into next week. The new Year is set to herald two tropical LOWS that are likely to form along the trough. One LOW is likely to form off the coast of Cairns while another is expected to form around the base of the Top End of the Territory.  Models are still in general disagreement on the exact track forecasts of these two monsoona...
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