Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog
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A Tropical LOW has formed this afternoon and will gradually deepen from later tomorrow while moving southwards in the Indian Ocean off Western Australia's coastline. Computer models indicate the system is likely to attain Tropical Cyclone intensity on Wednesday or Thursday while approaching the Pilbara coastline. Below is a preliminary assessment of available model guidance of track/crossing locations and intensities. Please be aware this is preliminary data and until the LOW form...
Darwin get set for a wild weekend of squally storms and possible gales. A Tropical low has been developing over the last few days in the Arafura Sea and will drift SW to be near Darwin on Sunday. When the low develops into a TC it will be named TC BLANCHE. Images below show the likely position of the system on Sunday, as you can see gales will likely begin to affect the Darwin area later this weekend into early Monday morning. Often with this type of scenario it's not uncommon to see waterspouts...
Well folks, our subscribers have known about this developing system for over a week and given models have continued to firm, we can confidently say the NT North and NW Coasts are facing their highest TC risk all season. In fact, we have to look back to TC Lam in 2015 for the last time we had a reasonable threat to the NT Coast. At this stage a low has developed approximately 450kms North of Nhulunbuy and is expected to develop slightly as it takes a SW track. Most modelling has been in agre...
Tropical Cyclone Dineo hit Mozambique's (East Africa) coastline a little after 1AM this morning Queensland time. The system made landfall as a Category 3 Tropical Cyclone on the Australian scale with wind gusts likely to have been in the vicinity of 160 - 180km/hr. The Tropical Cyclone was the strongest one to hit Mozambique's coastline since TC Jokwe in 2008. Dineo is the third tropical cyclone of the so-far very quiet SW Indian Ocean cyclone season (The SW Indian Ocean season r...
After a hot and humid day in Mackay, we were treated to a stunning sunset!
Hot on the heels of the Western Australian LOW, another LOW is likely to form in the Gulf Of Carpentaria in a couple of days. Contrary to what some media outlets and social media pages might have you believe there is no threat of this system becoming a tropical cyclone off the Far Northern Queensland coast , we've even heard of some ridiculous predictions of a cyclone or LOW hitting our lovely home - Townsville - by Saturday. This is utter garbage. The system is likely to for...
A Tropical LOW is developing near the Kimberley coastline. The LOW will move offshore tomorrow and develop further. On Wednesday the LOW will move south and lie near or on the Pilbara coast. Gales with damaging wind gusts will develop along the Pilbara coast and widespread rain will also accompany these strong winds. Let's take a look at what computer models have to say. The Euro model has a borderline Category One system making landfall on Wednesday evening near Roebourne with winds ...
Very active monsoonal conditions are expected in the Top End from today with the NW Coast including Darwin expecting squally conditions by Sunday night. Interestingly, a very small surface eddy formed just to the east of Darwin this morning which could locally enhance rainfall in the region. These types of features are very common in Monsoon Troughs and are not easy to forecast. As the trough slowly migrates southwards to near the base of the Top End this week, squally NW winds w...
Well by now we should all know that the monsoon is firing up and will create a LOW for Western Australia, but did you know latest computer model outputs from multiple weather models show the Gulf Of Carpentaria joining in on the action with a LOW/cyclone of their own? A couple of models even show a LOW in the Coral Sea off Queensland's North-East coast. The primary action of course is already showing signs of forming soon near Timor. That first LOW will remain weak and ...