Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog

Welcome to our OCC Blog! We will be posting frequently on this blog so please check back for new items regularly. You can also subscribe to get notifications of new posts.

MONSOON LOWS TO FORM FOR QLD AND THE NT

​The monsoon continues to create squally showers and storms, but these are likely to pale into insignificance once it fully develops over the weekend and into next week. The new Year is set to herald two tropical LOWS that are likely to form along the trough. One LOW is likely to form off the coast of Cairns while another is expected to form around the base of the Top End of the Territory.  Models are still in general disagreement on the exact track forecasts of these two monsoona...
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MONSOON TO RETURN WITH A VENGEANCE TO QLD AND THE NT

The monsoon is getting set for a re-appearance across Northern Australia and while the NT has already benefited from it, it looks as though far Northern Queensland will get to join in the fun as well this time around.  Tropical Cyclone Nock-Ten is weakening near the Philippines and once it dies, a strong burst of monsoonal NE winds will cross the equator and become our next burst of the Aussie NW monsoon. This is all set to take place starting around Mid-week and by the end of the week, the...
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NOCK-TEN DOWNGRADED - MANILA SPARED FROM THE WORST

Great news as this morning as land interaction a track a little further south than initially forecast have resulted in a downgrade of the winds to be experienced over downtown Manila later today.  Nock-Ten was a Cat 5 with winds estimated by the JTWC to be gusting to 305km/hr and a pressure of 915Hpa has since been downgraded after crossing some of the rugged terrain of the Philippines.  At this stage downtown Manila should experience sustained northerly winds of 20-30 knots ...
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HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS ON QUEENSLAND'S CENTRAL COAST

The combination of an upper trough and surface convergence has resulted in some significant rainfall on the Central Queensland coastline over the past 24 hours.  The BoM graphic below shows some big falls occurring with some of the most notable ones being  Bundy - 139mm (with various locations around the city picking up to 160mm) Cooran - 105mm Gympie - 54mm Middlemount - 50mm Widespread 20-50mm rain fell in SEQ yesterday as well.  More moderate to possibly heavy falls are expecte...
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WILD NIGHT AHEAD FOR THE PHILIPPINES AS CAT 5 CYCLONE BEARS DOWN

Tropical Cyclone Nock-Ten remains a very strong Category 5 system as it approaches the Philippines tonight. The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre estimates that the system packs wind gusts to 305km/hr. The system is likely to pass very close to Manila tomorrow afternoon and still maintain around a Category Three intensity. Nock Ten is reported to be the strongest late-season Tropical Cyclone recorded in the region in over 50 years (since TC Susan in 1963).  The satellite estimated minimum pressu...
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OCC'S FACEBOOK CHRISTMAS PRIZE GIVEAWAY

Morning folks and MERRY CHRISTMAS from Santa Nitso and the team here at OCC. Today we are gifting 5 free subscriptions to our OCC Eyewall membership service. You can find out more about our service here or take a look at our comparison chart below CHRISTMAS FACEBOOK GIVEAWAY QUIZ RULES OCC is offering 5 chances to win a free 12-month subscription to our Eyewall membership service. 5 questions will be posted through Christmas Day - answer any of them correctly and you go into the draw to win. 1 -...
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SUPER TYPHOON NOCK-TEN TO HIT PHILIPPINES CHRISTMAS AND BOXING DAY

While Australia struggles to create a simple weak Tropical Cyclone, The Northern Hemisphere is giving us a lesson in strong tropical cyclogenesis as one of the strongest Tropical Cyclones of the year in the North-West Pacific is set to make landfall over the Philippines on Christmas night/Boxing Day. Now for those unaware, Boxing Day is pretty much the middle of the Northern Hemisphere Winter, that's almost like (but not quite the same) as a Cat 5 whacking the NT in June. Pretty crazy huh? Due t...
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EX CYCLONE YVETTE TO HIT THE COAST NEAR BROOME ON CHRISTMAS DAY

​Tropical Cyclone Yvette was downgraded to a Tropical LOW and the Cyclone Watch for the West Kimberley and Eastern Pilbara has been lifted, however the system is still likely to pack a reasonable punch to its north as it makes landfall tomorrow. The Bureau Of Meteorology are predicting gale force wind gusts could accompany any squally showers and storms making their way onto the West Kimberley coastline tomorrow, but these conditions will be limited to the north of the LOW pressure system's...
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WEAK SOLOMON ISLANDS LOW TO DRIFT SOUTH

A weak LOW is forming in the Solomon Sea and is expected to move in a southerly direction for the remainder of this week and into the weekend. It is likely to deepen slightly but computer models do not deepen it enough to become a Tropical Cyclone.  Once the LOW decays, the remnant surface trough/circulation may move west towards Queensland and enhance shower activity across the Southern and Central coasts of the state next week.  A new LOW is likely to form along a re-invigorated...
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CHRISTMAS TROPICAL CYCLONE LOOKS LIKELY

​Earlier this afternoon, Tropical Cyclone Yvette was born off the coast of Western Australia. The system has been steadily gaining strength through the day lying on the edge of a very favourable atmosphere and a very unfavourable one. The cyclone will now be slow moving for the next 24-48 hours before adopting a south-easterly track towards the East Pilbara or Western Kimberley. At current model projections, this system appears to make landfall right on Christmas Day. There is plenty of disagree...
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STRONG STORMS LIKELY IN SEQ THIS AFTERNOON

A surface trough mixed with some cooler upper level air will combine to produce some strong storms in South-East Queensland today. The Severe Weather Threat Index shows values of 300+ being met this afternoon/evening just inland of the South-East coast and with the cooling upper atmosphere we should see some large hail around today along with the possibility for damaging winds and heavy rain.  The storm steering winds should keep most of the stronger storms just inland of the coast but...
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EARLY MODEL DATA INDICATING POSSIBLE TROPICAL LOW IN THE GULF OF CARPENTERIA - POSSIBLY SLIDING INTO EASTERN QUEENSLAND........COULD THE RAIN BE FINALLY COMING??

​Nope....this image has nothing to do with the dribble we have seen on some Social Media pages over the past few days. This is a completely different year :) ( some may not get what Im talking about LOL )  Early model data is starting to suggest the REASONABLE probabilities of a Tropical Low forming in the GOC sometime between Boxing day and New Years Eve...This makes us just a little bit excited! Considering the extreme lack of rainfall over Eastern Queensland, especially CQ and NQ I perso...
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TROPICAL LOW SET TO FORM BETWEEN DARWIN AND KALUMBURU - LONGER TERM TROPICAL LOW/TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS TO WESTERN AUSTRALIA

​A very interesting week ahead weather wise across the Tropics. A Tropical Low is set to form somewhere along a weak Monsoonal Trough in the next 24-48 hours, most likely between Darwin/Tiwi Islands, and Kalumburu. The majority of modelling is moving the system over the next week to the WSW-SW, while slowly intensifying....... IF it can move over the warm soupy waters of the Indian Ocean!  OCC is currently going over the modelling, and if we can see more clear cut modelling to suggest a Tro...
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The Top End and Darwin week ahead

Well folks the models have firmed significantly in these last few days, because it's nearly Christmas and the word 'cyclone' likes to be thrown around a bit especially around Darwin we thought it would be a good time to give a quick run down of current modelling and what to expect in the Top End, particularly Darwin this coming week. As most of our subscribers would already be aware, we do have a low expected to form either just to the North of NW of the Tiwi Islands and begin to ...
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THE WEEK AHEAD

​A strengthening monsoon, and a probable Tropical Cyclone will dominate the weather headlines next week as we lead into Christmas. Here's an overview of what to expect. ​THE THREE LOW PRESSURE AREAS Did you know our OCC Subscribers gain access to a monthly video outlook twice a week? We look at tropical cyclones, and rainfall anomalies over the coming month. Become an OCC Subscriber today and support our work while gaining access to these long term valuable outlooks available exclusive...
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MODEL CONCENSUS DEVELOPING - TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF WA COAST NEXT WEEK

The monsoon trough is strengthening and moving towards Australia. A Tropical Cyclone is likely to form in the waters north of Western Australia next week according to the current model consensus. Between 70 and 80% of the Euro ensemble and 80 - 90% of the GFS ensemble show a Tropical Cyclone forming off the Kimberley coast and tracking south-west. It is too early to definitively say where the system will hit or even IF the system will hit the coast.   The initial LOW forms over or just...
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CYCLONE THREAT GROWS NEXT WEEK BUT WHERE EXACTLY?

CYCLONE THREAT GROWS NEXT WEEK BUT WHERE EXACTLY?
​As we get closer to the onset of the Australian monsoon, models continue to develop a monsoonal LOW and then many of them intensify it into a Tropical Cyclone. However the big questions is where? and the equally big question, given that its Christmas time is WHEN?  So here is what we can speculate/infer/forecast/(add your own guess type word in here) based on current weather computer models.  ​ECMWF MODEL ENSEMBLE SUITE - #1 IN THE WEATHER FORECAST WORLD Become a subscriber and we'll ...
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IS THE MONSOON PREPARING TO DELIVER A CHRISTMAS PACKAGE?

So have you been naughty or nice?  Sorry to be the Grinch, but chances are the Weather Gods won't care. Over the weekend the monsoon trough will drift south and then become more active next week. Along the monsoon trough we will quite likely see 3 - 4 LOW pressure systems in the Australian Area Of Responsibility. ​Near Cocos Island  South of Indonesia In the Timor Sea Near the Solomons Numbers 2 and 3 are likely to deepen and one of those two could bring an unwanted wind...
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OCC STATE WEATHER FORECAST VIDEOS - 13TH DECEMBER 2016

OCC STATE WEATHER FORECAST VIDEOS - 13TH DECEMBER 2016
​Good morning everyone, We have record breaking rain in WA, monsoons, LOWS heavy showers and storms all to talk about today across the three northern states and Territories in your subscriber state weather updates.  To become an OCC subscriber and gain access to all the graphics shown on these videos and the daily videos themselves, head to www.ozcyclonechasers.com.au/subscribe Subscribers don't forget we go into some deep detail about the future Western Australian cyclone and what we can e...
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CYCLONE THREAT TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK

Earlier this afternoon, the Bureau Of Meteorology in Perth issued its daily update on Western Australian Tropical Cyclone development stating that with the monsoon trough expected to drift southwards, "the risk increases next weekend for a tropical system to develop south of the Indonesian Archipelago."  Did you know that our subscribers have known about this LOW pressure signal now for over two weeks? Become an OCC subscriber and gain access to reliable longer term cyclone outloo...
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