Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog
OCC - CURRENT CYCLONE VIDEO FOR TROPICAL LOW 94P
Issued at 12:10PM March 22nd
tropical LOW 94P has begun to wrap some deep convection near its circulation. The system is currently enjoying the benefit of a surge in NW monsoonal winds and this will soon set it to move in an Easterly to South-Easterly direction over the next 24 hours.
The system is expected to undergo a period of rapid intensification tomorrow night and likely to move from C1 - C3 strength under the influence of enhanced outflow, low shear and very warm SST's Further intensification to C4 is quite possible in that environment but dependent on how fast the system moves - the slower the system moves through this environment = a greater chance of further intensification.
On Saturday and Sunday the system is likely to move in a SSE direction and later Sunday the system is likely to slow down. The steering environment becomes far too complex on Sunday and Monday to ascertain whether motion in any direction is able to take place and the system could become quasi stationary either over land or in the Southern Gulf Of Carpentaria. Environmental conditions will be only marginally favourable for further development later in the weekend but the environment should be able to maintain a C3/C4 system while it decides what it wants to do if it is still over water.
As the system tracks SE heavy rainfall will develop on Queensland's North-East coast on the weekend in some of the already flood affected regions from 2 weeks ago.
By mid week models agree that a strong mid level subtropical ridge will steer the cyclone or its remains west across NW Queensland/Central NT with a small possibility of the system moving offshore in the Pilbara and Kimberley with some redevelopment possible if that unlikely scenario were to take place.
Subscribers - we have discussed the rain potential and winds associated with this system in the SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE issued this morning.
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