Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog
The Top End and Darwin week ahead
Well folks the models have firmed significantly in these last few days, because it's nearly Christmas and the word 'cyclone' likes to be thrown around a bit especially around Darwin we thought it would be a good time to give a quick run down of current modelling and what to expect in the Top End, particularly Darwin this coming week. As most of our subscribers would already be aware, we do have a low expected to form either just to the North of NW of the Tiwi Islands and begin to deepen as it moves SW into WA.
While initially there will be a few weak circulations in the developing Monsoon Trough, these circulations are forecast to consolidate into the main area or low pressure mentioned above. What this will mean for Darwin is a continuing unstable and moist NE stream with showers and thunderstorms, some of these are likely to be very heavy but the true squally NW Monsoon people have been waiting for is unlikely to eventuate and if it does, only for a brief period mid next week.
The reasoning for this is that the low pressure system will be located to the NW of the city and as it tracks to the SW will mean the monsoonal flow will be kinked around to be more from a North or NE. When the low tracks further to the SW, the NW flow on top of it will be propelled toward the Top Ends NW coast sometime but perhaps 'just' fall short of reaching it sometime on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Below are what the different models are saying using the OCC Weather Centre, they give you a pretty good idea of what the winds will be doing around mid next week, while conditions will still be very unstable and wet in some parts. Unfortunately, given the interrupted flow over the islands we are going to see some rain shadow effects locally and this may include parts of Darwin. Out of all of them, GFS is most bullish about bringing the squally NW flow ashore late Wednesday night. Either way there should still be ample convergence and moisture around the place though so there should still be some very good falls of rain in parts.
Early to mid next week is when it's all likely to happen rainfall wise and there should be some good convergence of the NW to NE monsoonal flow over the North Coast extending inland a little. Rainfall varies for the week, but places from Darwin to a line east to Milingimbi could see up to 300mm before Christmas
Either way enjoy the cooler wet weather guys and let's hope we can get a renewed burst of the Monsoon over the Northern Top End Coast after Christmas which could see the beginnings of new low form in that region or even in the Gulf
The latest BOM TC and Rainfall Outlook for the NT are also attached which pretty much sums up the situation, stay tuned to OCC especially our WA folk as we look at likely areas for potential impacts .