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Model comparisons showing the NT and QLD LOW's on Jan 2 2017

​The monsoon continues to create squally showers and storms, but these are likely to pale into insignificance once it fully develops over the weekend and into next week. The new Year is set to herald two tropical LOWS that are likely to form along the trough. One LOW is likely to form off the coast of Cairns while another is expected to form around the base of the Top End of the Territory. 

Models are still in general disagreement on the exact track forecasts of these two monsoonal rain producers, but here's what they MOSTLY agree on:

  • The monsoon will strengthen from tomorrow on
  • ​2 Tropical LOWS will likely form along the MT between December 30 - Jan 2
  • One off Queensland's North Tropical Coast, one at the base of the Top End or SW Gulf Country
  • The Queensland LOW will be a complex circulation, it may even remain a very deep trough and will generally move southwards and models do not intensify it into a Tropical Cyclone, but gales may accompany the complex trough/LOW. (However I wouldn't rule out a sneaky tightening of the circulation into a weak TC just yet) 
  • Both form between December 30 - Jan 1
  • The Central Coast or Capricornia of Queensland is likely to see heavy rain which may cause flooding next week on the southern side of the Queensland LOW. This area may extend southwards to the Wide Bay Burnett coastline.
  • The monsoon will push south with the Queensland LOW bringing showers and storms across most of the northern half of the state. It is then being forecast to stall around the Central Coast/Capricornia of Queensland in a complex environment with many different variations of what could occur while it does this. 
  • The NT setup is far less certain and far more variable with little model agreement however the latest trend is to drift the Top End LOW NW towards Darwin and intensify it by mid week. However there is too much variability for us to be confident in this. 
  • Models which push the system towards Darwin then show the system possibly attaining Tropical Cyclone status ****IF**** it can get offshore. 

JUST REMEMBER THESE ARE PRELIMINARY OUTLOOKS BASED ON CURRENT EARLY MODEL GUIDANCE. Models will do much better with this setup and then we can start talking rain amounts and coastal crossings and intensities etc once the LOWS form over the weekend. 

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