Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog
WILL THIS BECOME AUSTRALIA'S NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE?
The NT LOW has finally made its decision to move west towards the Western Top End. All eyes will now be on the LOW and whether it can get offshore and intensify. Both the Bureau Of Meteorology in Darwin and Perth are mentioning the possibility of this system intensifying if it can get offshore. In fact this system has two chances to intensify. The first is in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf later tomorrow and Wednesday while the second could be off the Pilbara coastline if it can get offshore.
So what do the models say?
2 of the 8 models consulted by OCC this evening show this system pushing offshore and one of those models show the system becoming a strong tropical cyclone before hitting the Pilbara coastline. Ordinarily you would say 2/8 shows that there is only a small chance, but we do have to pay some attention to it because one of those two models is the most accurate one in the world - the ECMWF
The general model consensus shows the LOW remaining inland (as per the model graphic below), but there has been a definite trend on every major computer model to push it closer to the Pilbara/Kimberley coastline during today's model runs. So this is certainly drawing our attention.
Very heavy rain will develop along the Western Top End coast and along the North Kimberley before shifting south and west towards major towns like Broome later in the week.
Become an OCC subscriber and find out all the latest information on this LOW and its chances of becoming a Tropical Cyclone at www.ozcyclonechasers.com.au/subscribe Our next subscriber exclusive video forecast on this system will be issued tomorrow afternoon, but a video update on the Kimberley/Pilbara weather situation will be updated tomorrow morning.