Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog
SHOWERY WEEKEND AHEAD FOR NE QUEENSLAND
In what has been thus far a very dry month across most of Australia, a couple of rain bearing systems will develop over the last couple of days of the month that may stop it from becoming Australia's driest June ever recorded. The first (and by far the largest) system is a cold front and associated rain band across SE Australia from today, but of more interest to our northern audience is a sharp increase in shower activity as we move into the weekend across the region from Rollingstone to Gordonvale and up around the Mossman/Port Douglas area. The EFI (Extreme Forecast Index) shows the rain on the weekend is equivalent to approximately a 1 in 5 year event (so approximately every 5 June's/July's we would see rainfall of that magnitude over such a short space of time over this area) so it's not a major event, but considering how meteorologically boring June has been, at least it's something to enjoy as we head into the new month.
Showers should increase from Saturday in these areas as SE winds combine with a very weak surface trough. Widespread falls of 30+mm are expected with very isolated pockets receiving over 100mm by the end of the weekend. Major centres like Townsville and Cairns are set to be too far south and north respectively to receive any of the heavier rainfall, but a couple of showers in these major centres should be expected.
Current climatic indicators now show us moving away from El Nino-like conditions and remaining in a Neutral or even possibly heading to a cool-neutral phase as we head into the Spring so this is good news for average or slightly above average rainfalls as we head into the early storm season (September-November). However, offsetting that positive development is the possibility of a positive IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) which means that moisture feeding into Spring trough and frontal systems may be limited. It is still far too early to speculate on next year's wet season.