Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog
LA-NINA WATCH DECLARED FOR AUSTRALIA
Finally, after a few months of cooling waters across the Central and Eastern Pacific, The Walker Circulation's worst kept secret has been revealed 'officially' at least (our subscribers have known this was coming since August). the Bureau this morning has upgraded us to a La Nina Watch as the threat of a developing La Nina has grown considerably. In saying that, don't go out and watch the latest Sci-Fi Weather blockbuster Geostorm and think that's what's about to happen in Australia, but the signs are positive that we should see a decent wet season across the northern half of the country along with an average to above average tropical cyclone season.
It is worthwhile noting that while a La Nina may occur, at this stage it is unlikely to be very strong, nor does it appear that it will last much past the middle part of the wet season. Even in a weak La Nina or borderline pattern, we should see more favourable ingredients for cyclones and rainfall more often across the wet season, but the weak pattern would stop short of creating widespread above average rains for everyone (there will still be some losers in this scenario). Considerable warming of the Pacific is not expected until February at the earliest which should allow our atmosphere ample time to respond to the cooling ocean and create a considerable enhancement of convection across the Western Pacific, Coral Sea and Australian longitudes during at least the first half of the cyclone season.