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WET WEEK AHEAD AND A POSSIBLE LOW FOR PARTS OF QUEENSLAND

The Extreme Weather Index from weather.us for Thursday shows some significant rainfall (compared to average values) is possible between Cairns and St Lawrence with the key focus region between about Townsville and Mackay (ECMWFEPS)

A SE wind change moving up the Queensland coastline should result in more rain and perhaps even a weak LOW near the coast of Central or Northern Queensland later this week. Computer models indicate this SE change will interact with the pre-existing northerly winds present across Northern Queensland on Wednesday and create some surface and near-surface level vorticity (spin) on Wednesday night and Thursday. This development of vorticity then accelerates the air in towards its centre thus resulting in what we call the convergence of air masses and mass uplift of warm moist air. This then develops lower pressure at the surface. This convergence is likely to remain south of the system centre, but the system is expected to move north or north-westwards and inland, therefore, we are likely to see some substantial rain both on the coast and eventually across inland parts of Northern Queensland.

 
wether.us image of the probability of a Tropical LOW occurring within 48hrs of 10PM Wednesday

The probability of a weak LOW forming is considered moderate (approximately 40%), but its proximity to the coastline is likely to mean its chances of intensifying further are going to remain very limited (<10%).  It is too early to start looking at total rainfall estimates because the values depend heavily on where this weak LOW or area of spin forms along that SE change - BEWARE of any pages/sites/misinformation mentioning rainfall amounts this week without mentioning how highly variable those amounts could be. 

Below is a select list of major locations in the area and an example of the high variability of rainfall forecasting is FROM TODAY UP TO AND INCLUDING NEXT SUNDAY to prove how volatile and delicate the situation is. Note there are other areas outside of these major urban settlements that may have higher values.

​LOCATION ​10TH PERCENTILE VALUE
(90% chance of exceeding this number)
​MEAN VALUE
(average across modelling)
 
​90TH PERCENTILE VALUE
(90% chance of less than this number)
MAXIMUM VALUE
(the wishful thinking value)
​CAIRNS ​75mm ​120mm ​175mm​252mm
​INNISFAIL​80mm​131mm​180mm​480mm
​INGHAM​93mm​159mm​234mm​390mm
TOWNSVILLE​88mm​175mm​333mm​533mm
​AYR​89mm​180mjm​341mm​514mm
BOWEN​98mm​175mm​269mm​455mm
PROSERPINE​76mm​148mm​223mm​405mm
MACKAY​73mm​144mm​211mm​411mm
MORANBAH​24mm​57mm​107mm​181mm
​CHARTERS TOWERS​56mm​110mm​183mm​418mm
MAREEBA​53mm​98mm​134mm​165mm
 
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