Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog

Welcome to our OCC Blog! We will be posting frequently on this blog so please check back for new items regularly. You can also subscribe to get notifications of new posts.

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS SUBSCRIBER MODEL UPGRADE - NOVEMBER 6 2017

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 Over the past 24 hours, we have upgraded our model data offerings to subscribers by implementing the new very high-resolution ACCESS R computer model. The new upgrade from the Bureau Of Meteorology almost triples the previous grid modelling available. The ACCESS model has been increasing its accuracy over the past few years and the update over the past 24 hours should take this computer forecast model to the forefront of near-term weather forecasting accuracy across Australia.  T...
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LA-NINA WATCH DECLARED FOR AUSTRALIA

Finally, after a few months of cooling waters across the Central and Eastern Pacific, The Walker Circulation's worst kept secret has been revealed 'officially' at least (our subscribers have known this was coming since August). the Bureau this morning has upgraded us to a La Nina Watch as the threat of a developing La Nina has grown considerably. In saying that, don't go out and watch the latest Sci-Fi Weather blockbuster Geostorm and think that's what's about to happen in Australia, but th...
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MASSIVE COMPUTER MODEL UPGRADES AT OCC - 1 HOUR DATA NOW AVAILABLE

 In what is one of our biggest upgrade of the past year. OCC subscribers now enjoy an Australian weather first. Our subscribers now have access to rapidly updating one-hour computer model data from the ACCESS-R model, the BoM's go to regional weather model for Australia.  The computer model upgrade has been on the cards at OCC for a few months and was finally released live moments ago.  Parameters such as hourly rainfall totals, surface pressures, surface level winds, surface...
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OCC PUBLIC TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR SEASON 2017/2018

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Earlier today we released our 2017/2018 Tropical Cyclone Outlook to our subscribers.  In a nutshell, the outlook calls for a slightly enhanced Tropical Cyclone season in 2017/2018. A combination of a favourable surface pressure pattern, surface sea temperatures, lower levels of vertical wind shear and favourable forecast large scale steering flows have resulted in the Outlook's conclusions.  To access the full 40-minute in-depth explanatory video and full-text and map analysis inc...
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TOWNSVILLE SHEDS & GARAGES TEAM UP WITH OZ CYCLONE CHASERS FOR 2017/2018

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It's with great pleasure and pride that we announce a new sponsorship agreement with our 2017/2018 major sponsor Townsville Sheds & Garages began today. We believe that Townsville Sheds & Garages are a great fit for OCC as they are a great example of one of our hundreds of small Northern Australian business subscriber clients that have used and benefited from our services for a number of years. We look forward to growing together this coming season. Townsville Sheds & Garages ar...
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NEW OCC SUBSCRIPTION PLANS FOR 2017/2018 INCLUDING FREE 7 DAY TRIAL

G'day folks,  I'm excited today to bring you some news of some different subscription plans available to our followers for the 2017/2018 season, including a no strings attached free trial.  Instead of one plan for everyone, we have split our plans up into three and have also added a free 7 day trial for those who wish to trial what we offer with no risk.  Check out our new plans below. To sign up head to www.ozcyclonechasers.com.au/subscribe   Plan 1 - The Free Trial   T...
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SHOWERY WEEKEND AHEAD FOR NE QUEENSLAND

In what has been thus far a very dry month across most of Australia, a couple of rain bearing systems will develop over the last couple of days of the month that may stop it from becoming Australia's driest June ever recorded. The first (and by far the largest) system is a cold front and associated rain band across SE Australia from today, but of more interest to our northern audience is a sharp increase in shower activity as we move into the weekend across the region from Rollingstone to G...
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ASWA Conference OzChaserCon2017

 The 2017 Australian Severe Weather Association Conference is on again this year, and Oz Cyclone Chasers will be there again to showcase our Cyclone Debbie Chase. So please check out the information below and head on over to the Australian Severe Weather Association website to book your tickets! This year ASWA will be showcasing content from right across Australia with many fantastic presentations from professionals and well known and respected stormchasers. These include: Joshua Soder...
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HEAVY RAIN ON THE WAY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN QUEENSLAND

A major rain event is on the way for many Queenslanders later this week. Warm moist easterly winds from the Coral Sea will be uplifted at the surface by a surface trough moving SW from the ocean. At the same time, cold upper level air from a trough and upper LOW in South Australia will move east and create a sharp thermal gradient between the surface and the upper levels of the atmosphere. The combination of these two factors will result in some major dry season rainfall for coastal and inland p...
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YET ANOTHER OUT OF SEASON CYCLONE - THIS ONE'S FOR FIJI

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In the Southern hemisphere cyclone season that knows no time limits, Tropical Cyclone Ella has formed and is heading west towards Fiji. The tiny category one cyclone is expected to possibly nudge Category Two later today or tonight before weakening on approach to Fiji's Vanua Levu and Taveuni Islands. The system is likely to approach later tomorrow in a weakening state and will only pack a significant punch on its southern side. Given the system's tiny size, and expected weakening trend on appro...
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CORAL SEA SET TO FIRE UP AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK

In the Aussie cyclone season that initially didn't want to begin and now doesn't want to end, a new LOW is set to form in the far North-Eastern Coral Sea and begin moving westwards later next week. Early indications are that the LOW will form along a trough line in the South-West Pacific Ocean. The exact origin varies from around the Solomon Islands through to Vanuatu but models are clearly intent on moving it westwards into the Coral Sea by next weekend.  Of course, it is too early to spec...
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TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABLE IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for a Tropical LOW located well north of Darwin. A TCFA is issued when a significant Tropical Cyclone is expected to develop in the next 24 hours. The Bureau Of Meteorology have remained much more conservative instead adopting a MODERATE (20-50%)chance of Tropical Cyclone development in the next two days.  The balance of available computer model evidence, particularly those models that are more reliable are showi...
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - FUTURE AUSSIE CYCLONES VIDEO - APRIL 21 2017

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - FUTURE AUSSIE CYCLONES VIDEO - APRIL 21 2017
A Tropical LOW will form and deepen next week north of Australia and then begin moving closer to the coast. We take a look at its future and where it is likely to go in the video below.  If you'd like to access daily video updates on this system as it forms along with enhanced weather analysis and high-resolution weather graphics, consider supporting what we do by becoming an OCC subscriber. Head to ozcyclonechasers.com.au/subscribe   If you'd like to access daily video updat...
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - STATE WEATHER VIDEO UPDATES - 21 APRIL 2017

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - STATE WEATHER VIDEO UPDATES - 21 APRIL 2017
Morning folks,  Please find your weather videos attached for Queensland, NT and WA  We will be issuing a Future Aussie Cyclones Video to subscribers and the general public this evening around 6:00PM Q time dealing with the upcoming Tropical LOW/Cyclone expected next week.  Subscribers you will then have a video forecast update specifically dealing with this system daily from tomorrow morning.  If you'd like to support our work and gain access to some of Australia's ...
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - PUBLIC CYCLONE UPDATE 12TH APRIL 2017

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - PUBLIC CYCLONE UPDATE 12TH APRIL 2017
Evening folks,  We wrap up the NT LOW and wrap up the rumours of a Coral Sea LOW/cyclone.  If you'd like to support our work in documenting tropical cyclones and gain access to comprehensive cyclone information next season, become an OCC subscriber at ozcyclonechasers.com.au/subscribe
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - PUBLIC CYCLONE VIDEO 11 APRIL 2017

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - PUBLIC CYCLONE VIDEO 11 APRIL 2017
Good evening everyone,  The Cyclone Warning has been cancelled for Darwin but a Severe Weather Warning remains current. The Cyclone Warning has now been extended to residents in the North Kimberley. We talk about all the latest happenings with the NT LOW as well as the circulation forming in the Coral Sea.  If you'd like access to these updates daily during the wet season next year become an Oz Cyclone Chasers subscriber and help us document more cyclones while gaining access to A...
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - TROPICAL CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE - 10TH APRIL 2017

OZ CYCLONE CHASERS - TROPICAL CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE - 10TH APRIL 2017
Evening everyone the Aussie Tropics continue to fire up late this season with Queensland, NT and WA all seeing Tropical LOWS over the next few days. Please check out this brief video update which goes through all of the cyclones/LOWS in and around the Australian region over the next few days.  For a more comprehensive look, become an OCC Subscriber, assist us in our documentary efforts and gain access to in-depth cyclone analysis, forecasts and information. Head to ozcyclonechasers.com.au/s...
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COMPUTER MODELS SHIFT CYCLONE THREAT CLOSER TO DARWIN

COMPUTER MODELS SHIFT CYCLONE THREAT CLOSER TO DARWIN
In a subtle but significant twist of events, computer forecast models have shifted their model forecast tracks of possible future TC Francis closer to Darwin through the afternoon. The Bureau Of Meteorology have yet to adopt this change in latest model trends with Darwin remaining off TC Watch.  A Tropical LOW currently lies near the island of Palau Jamdena just under 600kms to the NNE of Darwin. Currently the environment is unfavourable for intensification of this system, bu...
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TC CHANCES UPGRADED TO MODERATE FOR NW TOP END COAST INCLUDING TIWI ISLANDS AND DARWIN

​We have been monitoring the Monsoon Trough development in the Arafura Sea for some time now and to be honest have been reluctant to say much given so much model uncertainty. At this stage the Monsoon Trough is becoming very active but it is also a complex setup with a smaller secondary low or eddy possible near Gove. At lunchtime Saturday the main low is roughly 520kms NW of Maningrida and the BOM have mentioned it in their TC Outlook attached further below. They give it a moderate ch...
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TROPICS CONTINUE TO FIRE WITH LATE SEASON CYCLONE/S POSSIBLE

Hot on the heels of TC Debbie, the tropics remain unstable. Multiple trough systems and atmospheric gravity waves are expected to pass across the far north of Australia over the next fortnight. Along these regions of enhanced instability computer forecast models are predicting from one, to as many as three LOW pressure systems to form. Thankfully these regions of cyclogenesis potential are nowhere near the areas that Debbie has just ravaged . However we need to be mindful that there will be...
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