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Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog

Welcome to our OCC Blog! We will be posting frequently on this blog so please check back for new items regularly. You can also subscribe to get notifications of new posts.

OCC - CURRENT CYCLONE VIDEO FOR TROPICAL LOW 94P

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 Issued at 12:10PM March 22nd  tropical LOW 94P has begun to wrap some deep convection near its circulation. The system is currently enjoying the benefit of a surge in NW monsoonal winds and this will soon set it to move in an Easterly to South-Easterly direction over the next 24 hours.  The system is expected to undergo a period of rapid intensification tomorrow night and likely to move from C1 - C3 strength under the influence of enhanced outflow, low shear and very warm SST's F...
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FUTURE AUSSIE CYCLONES VIDEO LOOKING AT THE NEXT NT LOW AND BRIEFLY AT THE CORAL SEA LOW

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​An NT LOW is set to form late in the week and has a relatively high chance of further developing into a Tropical Cyclone - this video goes through the meteorological variables that are likely to impact the LOW and cause it to move in various directions.  As you know cyclone forecasts and the systems that influence their development and movement are dynamic and ever changing, our subscribers are always kept up to date with these changes.These are the sorts of videos our subscribers get ever...
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TROPICAL LOW HIGHLY LIKELY NEXT WEEK

The NE tropics continue to fire with a Tropical LOW likely to develop around the Cape York Peninsula or Gulf Of Carpentaria region next week. Computer models indicate that a gravity wave tracking west across the Coral Sea will enhance atmospheric instability with an elongated trough system across the Gulf Of Carpentaria linking to the remnants of a Western Queensland LOW currently flooding the Western Queensland region. In addition to this, the monsoonal NW winds are set to increase later next w...
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SIGNIFICANT WEATHER VIDEO FORECAST 2ND MARCH - WESTERN QLD FLOOD EVENT

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 Issued at 10:00AM 2nd March 2018 A LOW located near Cloncurry is becoming slow moving. The system will drift slowly to the south-west today. Heavy rain will develop and continue east of the LOW and extend to areas south of the LOW overnight tonight and tomorrow. There is considerable disagreement about the future movement of the LOW and the video outlines why that is the case. The timeline for the video: 0 - 10 - General overview 10 - 17 - Difference in motion and steering 17 - 23 - lookin...
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WET WEEK AHEAD AND A POSSIBLE LOW FOR PARTS OF QUEENSLAND

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A SE  wind change moving up the Queensland coastline should result in more rain and perhaps even a weak LOW near the coast of Central or Northern Queensland later this week. Computer models indicate this SE change will interact with the pre-existing northerly winds present across Northern Queensland on Wednesday and create some surface and near-surface level vorticity (spin) on Wednesday night and Thursday. This development of vorticity then accelerates the air in towards its centre thus re...
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SIGNIFICANT WEATHER VIDEO UPDATE - MAJOR QUEENSLAND STORM SYSTEM

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Issued 20th February 2018 at 8:45PM We take a look at the latest forecast for the Queensland storm system which today produced winds over 100km/hr and hail of 4-8cms.. This update has also been released to the general public. Our next subscriber update is out tomorrow morning by 10AM. If you liked this update, we issue these types of updates for our subscribers ahead of and throughout significant weather events and Tropical Cyclones so please consider supporting us by becoming an OCC subscriber ...
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TROPICAL CYCLONE KELVIN INTENSIFIES OVER THE AUSTRALIAN 'BROWN OCEAN'

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​Ah the beautiful Pilbara and south Kimberley, a place where the hot desert soil meets the hot waters of the Indian Ocean and just occasionally a place where Tropical Cyclones like the hot desert soil just as much as the hot Indian Ocean. This was the case of the recent meteorologically incredible Tropical Cyclone Kelvin. Tropical Cyclone Kelvin hit the Sth Kimberley coastline on the 18th February 2018 at about 5AM WA time as a rapidly intensifying borderline Category One/Two system. Its im...
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TOP END TO FIRE UP......AGAIN

Sorry to add salt into the wounds of Queenslanders, but things are looking 'interesting' again for the NT Top End later this week and into next weekend.We say 'interesting' as many thought that would be relatively dry for at least the next 3-4 weeks. However, that's not quite looking like the case as we begin to see a broad area of low pressure develop around the Gulf of Carpentaria/Eastern Top End this week.The Trough will be aided by the SE surge currently racing up the QLD Coast and with a firm ridge to the south we are going to see this area of low pressure begin to track west across the Top End.Most current modelling (see GFS Image attached) has this area of low pressure consolidating, albeit weakly, somewhere near the NW Top End around Darwin/Tiwi Islands towards the weekend. While it's not looking like anything significant at this stage, we can't discount the impact of any low pressure system lurking around this neck of the woods at this time of year. With high atmospheric moisture levels, there is always the chance of localised enhanced rainfall/ storms in areas of convergence associated with such a system.

At this stage, watch out for areas of enhanced storm activity, initially around the Eastern Top End before becoming more widespread towards the latter part of the week. As always, significant activity will depend on where a low consolidates and how fast it tracks. Sometimes the convergence areas can setup well away from the low centre as it did last week, however, we don't have a Monsoon in play this time so it's unlikely to be anything significant. Either way, it will be good to see the more traditional East to SE storm steering pattern making a brief comeback to keep the lightning photographers happy.

Looking ahead, there is a high chance of a dry week or two towards the end of February before the Monsoon gets organised again sometime in early March. This will obviously dependant on many factors, but if past behaviour of the MJO pulse is anything to go by it's a likely outcome.If you want more detailed in depth forecast become a subscriber to hear Nitso give a comprehensive run down when/if significant weather develops. He also gives regular updates on what to expect for the month ahead in terms of TC activity. You can subscribe for a small fee which also gives you access to our high resolution Weather Centre for 12 months, go to www.ozcyclonechasers.com.au/subscribe*******************************************************************************************************************

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OCC WEATHER CENTRE NEW MAPS AND CYCLONE CHARTS

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The OCC Weather Centre continues to evolve into one of the best weather analysis and forecasting tools available on the web. Over the past few days we have added some new maps and specifically, some new cyclone maps that will make forecasting tropical cyclones easier and allow all of our subscribers a chance to make more educated and informed cyclone forecasts. All of these features are ready now and we look forward to seeing them in action next week with all of the Tropical Cyclone development ...
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OZ CYCLONE CHASERS SUBSCRIBER MODEL UPGRADE - NOVEMBER 6 2017

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 Over the past 24 hours, we have upgraded our model data offerings to subscribers by implementing the new very high-resolution ACCESS R computer model. The new upgrade from the Bureau Of Meteorology almost triples the previous grid modelling available. The ACCESS model has been increasing its accuracy over the past few years and the update over the past 24 hours should take this computer forecast model to the forefront of near-term weather forecasting accuracy across Australia.  T...
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LA-NINA WATCH DECLARED FOR AUSTRALIA

Finally, after a few months of cooling waters across the Central and Eastern Pacific, The Walker Circulation's worst kept secret has been revealed 'officially' at least (our subscribers have known this was coming since August). the Bureau this morning has upgraded us to a La Nina Watch as the threat of a developing La Nina has grown considerably. In saying that, don't go out and watch the latest Sci-Fi Weather blockbuster Geostorm and think that's what's about to happen in Australia, but th...
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MASSIVE COMPUTER MODEL UPGRADES AT OCC - 1 HOUR DATA NOW AVAILABLE

 In what is one of our biggest upgrade of the past year. OCC subscribers now enjoy an Australian weather first. Our subscribers now have access to rapidly updating one-hour computer model data from the ACCESS-R model, the BoM's go to regional weather model for Australia.  The computer model upgrade has been on the cards at OCC for a few months and was finally released live moments ago.  Parameters such as hourly rainfall totals, surface pressures, surface level winds, surface...
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OCC PUBLIC TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR SEASON 2017/2018

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Earlier today we released our 2017/2018 Tropical Cyclone Outlook to our subscribers.  In a nutshell, the outlook calls for a slightly enhanced Tropical Cyclone season in 2017/2018. A combination of a favourable surface pressure pattern, surface sea temperatures, lower levels of vertical wind shear and favourable forecast large scale steering flows have resulted in the Outlook's conclusions.  To access the full 40-minute in-depth explanatory video and full-text and map analysis inc...
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TOWNSVILLE SHEDS & GARAGES TEAM UP WITH OZ CYCLONE CHASERS FOR 2017/2018

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It's with great pleasure and pride that we announce a new sponsorship agreement with our 2017/2018 major sponsor Townsville Sheds & Garages began today. We believe that Townsville Sheds & Garages are a great fit for OCC as they are a great example of one of our hundreds of small Northern Australian business subscriber clients that have used and benefited from our services for a number of years. We look forward to growing together this coming season. Townsville Sheds & Garages ar...
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NEW OCC SUBSCRIPTION PLANS FOR 2017/2018 INCLUDING FREE 7 DAY TRIAL

G'day folks,  I'm excited today to bring you some news of some different subscription plans available to our followers for the 2017/2018 season, including a no strings attached free trial.  Instead of one plan for everyone, we have split our plans up into three and have also added a free 7 day trial for those who wish to trial what we offer with no risk.  Check out our new plans below. To sign up head to www.ozcyclonechasers.com.au/subscribe   Plan 1 - The Free Trial   T...
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SHOWERY WEEKEND AHEAD FOR NE QUEENSLAND

In what has been thus far a very dry month across most of Australia, a couple of rain bearing systems will develop over the last couple of days of the month that may stop it from becoming Australia's driest June ever recorded. The first (and by far the largest) system is a cold front and associated rain band across SE Australia from today, but of more interest to our northern audience is a sharp increase in shower activity as we move into the weekend across the region from Rollingstone to G...
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ASWA Conference OzChaserCon2017

 The 2017 Australian Severe Weather Association Conference is on again this year, and Oz Cyclone Chasers will be there again to showcase our Cyclone Debbie Chase. So please check out the information below and head on over to the Australian Severe Weather Association website to book your tickets! This year ASWA will be showcasing content from right across Australia with many fantastic presentations from professionals and well known and respected stormchasers. These include: Joshua Soder...
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HEAVY RAIN ON THE WAY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN QUEENSLAND

A major rain event is on the way for many Queenslanders later this week. Warm moist easterly winds from the Coral Sea will be uplifted at the surface by a surface trough moving SW from the ocean. At the same time, cold upper level air from a trough and upper LOW in South Australia will move east and create a sharp thermal gradient between the surface and the upper levels of the atmosphere. The combination of these two factors will result in some major dry season rainfall for coastal and inland p...
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YET ANOTHER OUT OF SEASON CYCLONE - THIS ONE'S FOR FIJI

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In the Southern hemisphere cyclone season that knows no time limits, Tropical Cyclone Ella has formed and is heading west towards Fiji. The tiny category one cyclone is expected to possibly nudge Category Two later today or tonight before weakening on approach to Fiji's Vanua Levu and Taveuni Islands. The system is likely to approach later tomorrow in a weakening state and will only pack a significant punch on its southern side. Given the system's tiny size, and expected weakening trend on appro...
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CORAL SEA SET TO FIRE UP AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK

In the Aussie cyclone season that initially didn't want to begin and now doesn't want to end, a new LOW is set to form in the far North-Eastern Coral Sea and begin moving westwards later next week. Early indications are that the LOW will form along a trough line in the South-West Pacific Ocean. The exact origin varies from around the Solomon Islands through to Vanuatu but models are clearly intent on moving it westwards into the Coral Sea by next weekend.  Of course, it is too early to spec...
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