Oz Cyclone Chasers Cyclone Blog

Welcome to our OCC Blog! We will be posting frequently on this blog so please check back for new items regularly. You can also subscribe to get notifications of new posts.

Wednesdays OCF Forecast

​Good evening all. Nitso has just posted an update on the developments of the tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria and goes into depth on possible future developments, so I urge everyone to watch it. Instead of going into computer modelling, this post will look at the forecast rainfalls for tomorrow. Much of Northern Queensland has experienced a large increase in cloud cover today and shower activity has also increased. You can see on the radar image below this increased activity, particularl...
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OCC NATIONAL CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE MARCH 15 2016

OCC NATIONAL CYCLONE VIDEO UPDATE MARCH 15 2016
This update is brought to you by our major sponsor Campbell Scientific Australia - When Measurements Matter  We look at a Tropical LOW that will impact Queensland's Gulf coast and Western Peninsula along with some heavy rain that is likely to occur on the NE coast of Queensland between Townsville and Cooktown.  Our next public video update will be issued around 9:00PM QLD time tomorrow night (16th March) with our next subscriber update at about 10:00AM tomorrow morning (16th March) To ...
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Website Issues Resolved

As many of you will no doubt be aware, over the last few days we have suffered from quite a few website-related issues. Our hosting provider couldn't keep up with us so we moved our server to a temporary host and unfortunately their resources couldn't keep up with our load either. Thankfully Matilda Internet came to our rescue and offered us with a robust hosting solution. The server is fast and has enough resources to keep us going even in the most busiest times. We thank you for your patience ...
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MONSOON ARRIVES TO AUSTRALIA, TROPICAL LOW TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO NORTHERN QUEENSLAND FROM THE CAPE , GOC TO THE NORTHERN TROPICAL COAST

​Monsoonal winds have arrived to Northern Australia, and heavy rainfall has begun to fall in areas such as the Cape York Peninsula and the Gulf Country.  A developing TROPICAL LOW is located in the Gulf Country between Mornington Island and Borroloola. All indications are at this stage that the TROPICAL LOW will move in a general easterly direction and make landfall somewhere between Karumba and Kowanyama in the next few days. Intensity wise - It will all depend on how long the sy...
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TROPICAL LOW TO FORM IN THE GULF OF CARPENTERIA

​As we have been eluding to for the last few days, a increase in Monsoonal winds will help aid in the development of a TROPICAL LOW somewhere in the Gulf Of Carpenteria.  Most likely in the far western part of the GOC. Early model data was very confident in the system moving to the E-SE and onto the Cape York Peninsula and into the Coral Sea. Unfortunately model data more than 5 days out from an event is rarely indicative of what actually ends up happening in the weather world!  We are...
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What's going on in the Top End?

​It's been a frustrating week for Top Enders as they continue to wait for the monsoon trough to form, unfortunately the forecast inland trough last week wasn't strong enough to produce widespread showers and storms. While there have been good falls around many places have missed out. Darwin in particular has endured more above average temps and the 3rd month in a row recording well below average rainfall.  Darwin has basically been sitting In the doldrums for nearly a week with no winds ups...
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Todays OCF forecast and look ahead

​Good morning to all of our followers. Todays OCF forecast chart shows increasing falls likely about the Gulf Country as the Gulf itself becomes a focus of activity. Continuing to see showers and storms extend through the interior, though more isolated about the central parts of the country. SA will see showers and storms today which continues a fairly wet period for the state.  The second map we have for you is the BoM rainfall outlook for the coming 8 days using a variety of models. One t...
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ENCOURAGING LONGER TERM CLIMATIC INDICATORS FOR THE AUSTRALIAN REGION

Thought we would take the opportunity to have a closer look at some climatic modelling for Australia later in the year and the news is quite encouraging. Firstly there are two very dominant influences on our weather, one is the Indian Ocean to our west and the Pacific to our east. Unfortunately, late in 2015 we faced a double whammy for suppressed conditions in Australia with the onset of a very strong El Nino in the Pacific and making matters worse, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the I...
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Todays OCF forecast and a look ahead.

​Good morning all and welcome to the weekend. We have for you todays OCF forecast (thanks to BSCH) which sees a continuation of the amazing shower and storm activity over much of the central parts of Australia. You can see an increase in the forecast falls around the GoC in particular in response to increasing tropical activity that should eventually lead to the development of a low pressure system. The inland trough remains active tapping into these increasing moisture levels to the north. Geor...
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The north and interior fire up.

Good afternoon all. A tremendous amount of moisture is helping to fire up abudant shower and storm activity over the north and interior of the country, particularly western QLD and around the Gulf of Carpentaria. We have 2 images for you below taken from our weather centre. First of which is the water vapour and infrared satellite overlay. You can see from the large amounts of white reflectivity, the levels of water vapour in the atmopshere is very high over much of QLD and the north east parts ...
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MODELS PREDICT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN QUEENSLAND NEXT WEEK

​A monsoon will develop next week and a LOW will form along it in the Gulf Of Carpentaria and it will likely move to the east. Some models also predict the possibility of a secondary circulation near the North Queensland coastline.  Shown above are the early estimates from the OCF for rain amounts. These rain amounts are primarily occurring from the 15th March  Individual models are predicting isolated pockets of 300-500mm/day across the North coast with general falls of 50+mm/day...
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Todays forecast and look ahead.

​Good morning everyone. We have for you below 3 graphics which we will go through. First of all is todays rainfall forecast supplied by the BoM with a corresponding MSLP chart, and the other section includes the rainfall forecast for the 14th to the 17th of this month. As nitso pointed out in the previous post, there are potentially exciting times on the way for northern QLD.  ​As you can see, the trough system through inland Australia remains active today bringing widespread showers and st...
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MONSOON LOW IN THE GULF NOW LIKELY AND MOVEMENT INTO QUEENSLAND POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK

​As we mentioned yesterday, the monsoon is arriving early next week and with it a Tropical LOW is expected to form. It is becoming increasingly likely that this LOW will form in the Gulf Of carpentaria and then track SE or ESE into Queensland. The LOW is expected to bring heavy falls to the Gulf, Western Peninsula and the NE Coast of Queensland.  The Euro and GFS modelling is quite interesting with both computer models showing two possible LOWS in similar locations. One in the Gulf and one ...
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Great rain for Townsville but it's not filling the dam :(

Once again we've seen some awesome rain for Townsville but that rain hasn't extended west far enough to flow into the Ross River Dam.  Shown below is the updated rainfall observations chart until 6AM this morning (March 10) for the previous 20 hour period.  While it's so great to see the rain around a city which has just gotten through its driest year in history, the rain is a very short term quick fix solution and its benefits will be forgotten in less than a week from now becaus...
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March an active time for cyclones.

​Whilst this season has been very quiet, it is important not to become complacent as March is typically a very active time for cyclones. Not only is it an active time in terms of numbers, but the intesnsity of March systems tend to be higher. Two examples of severe systems that were impacting upon Australia around this date in the past were Severe TC Ingrid and Severe TC George.  Before we give a brief rundown on Ingrid and George, we found this interesting graphic below showing the increas...
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LOW TO FORM ON A DEVELOPING MONSOON TROUGH NEXT WEEK

A weak monsoon trough is set to form across far Northern Australia early next week. Computer models indicate that a Tropical LOW will form along that trough line. The favoured location for the initial formation of that LOW appear to be at the base of the Top End of the NT, the LOW should then push east towards the Gulf Of Carpentaria/Queensland and slowly deepen.  Above is the Euro Ensemble showing the favoured area of that LOW's position next Friday morning. However you can also see a...
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MJO outlook.

​Good evening all. As you all know we like to keep an eye out on the progression of the MJO signal. This is a vital component (though not the only one) in helping us to forecast active tropical weather phases. Modelling is becoming more keen on a monsoonal burst developing across the north mid to late this month. As some of our video updates have already mentioned, there is an increasing likelihood of low pressure development associated with this.  Some models forecast the MJO signal t...
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Extreme Rainfall along the Queensland Coast

Some extreme rainfall around the Queensland Coast over the last 7 days, with some places receiving over 700mm of rain. We'll list all rainfall totals above 200mm as per official BoM records. ​As you can see from the above Accumulated Rainfall Map courtesy of BoM there was a heavy concentration of rainfall around the Lucinda and Mackay areas. From the official BoM rainfall tables, here are all rainfall totals up until 9am this morning that show every location that received 200mm or more. MOUNT JU...
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OCC Tuesday Subscriber Updates - Completed

Subscribers, your video updates for Tuesday have been completed and are now available on your state pages and on the "Future Aussie Cyclones" page QUEENSLAND UPDATE Widespread showers continuing along the coast, but clearing slowly northwards as the week progresses and into the weekend.  A Monsoon develops next week and dumps big falls  find out where  A LOW could form in 2 areas near Queensland next week - find out where.  Another LOW may track westwards from New Caledonia t...
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Final Monsoonal burst of 2016

Computer models indicate one final burst of the monsoon is expected to hit Northern Australia mid to late this month.

A Tropical LOW looks set to form near the Top WEnd or in the Gulf Of Carpentaria towards the back end of next week. Currently we see evidence of a 30-40% chance that this LOW will reach tropical cyclone intensity, however the favoured option remains for the LOW to stay monsoonal in structure with the strongest winds located well away from the centre.

Early model predictions show that the LOW is favoured to shift eastwards across the Gulf towards Queensland's Western Peninsula

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